Some showers and storms are possible today, chances are higher along and N of I-40, but anywhere in our two counties could see some rain today.
One or two storms could briefly reach severe limits with damaging straight-line winds and maybe some small hail, no tornado concerns. The Storm Prediction Center has both our counties outlooked with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds and/or hail within 25 miles.
Storms will be possible thru this evening, with coverage diminishing around sunset. Radar will be more useful at this point compared to looking at any model. You can always view the radar here on our website, and we’ll always tweet anything noteworthy out on X/Twitter.
Similar set-up for Tuesday. Another day with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles. We are not included in any probs for hail or tornadoes. Higher severe probs to our NE.
Some showers will be possible Tuesday morning, but majority of the activity will be focused from 1p – 9p.
The latest HRRR model gives its’ best guess below.
Heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds will be the potential hazards. Rainouts possible with some of the heavier downpours. New data will be available later today and tomorrow morning and things could change!
The main story in the weather world is Potential Tropical Cyclone 9.
There is still a good bit of uncertainty with this system, as a defined center of the storm has yet to form. Until that happens, models often have a tough time. Once a defined center is able to form (which is expected to happen in the next day or so) models will be able to ingest better data and we will get a better picture of what is expected to happen.
For now, models generally agree that a hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the Big Bend of Florida and make its’ way towards our area. If you or anyone you know is planning on vacationing in Florida, be sure to stay connected with the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center.
The curl to the left towards the end of the forecast is fairly interesting and is expected to happen to due a phenomenon known as the “Fujiwara Effect.” Those who watched Twisters may be familiar with this term, or if you are nerdy – which is okay this is a judgement free zone.
An upper-level low is forecasted to be over Arkansas around the time the system makes landfall and the two will begin to “dance” around each other, forcing soon-to-be Helene to curve towards the northwest.
How soon and sharp this turn happens will affect our local impacts from the system.
Models are in fairly good agreement until the system makes landfall, when confidence decreases on the exact track of the storm. Whether the center of the storm goes to our west, over us, or to our east will have implications on our local impacts.
The current rainfall total forecast over the next 7 days (which includes today and tomorrow) is 3-4″. The track that soon-to-be Helene takes will influence these totals, and they could increase or decrease.
“Our latest rainfall forecast shows generally 2 to 4 inches of rain by Saturday with the higher totals over the Plateau. Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast involving a tropical systems, so we could end up with lower or perhaps higher totals. Localized flooding could be a concern Thursday into Friday. Also, gusty winds and localized severe storms cannot be ruled out, but there is far too much uncertainty at this time to say what that risk level will be.” says NWS Nashville.
Confidence will increase as the system organizes and models digest better data. Old data is bad data. Continue to stay connected for any updates.
For now, heaviest rain looks to be Thursday and Friday and localized flooding could be possible. We could also be dealing with a low-end severe threat during this time as well, but again way too soon to know for sure. We could certainly use some rain (in moderation) but could do without the other hazards. More updates in future blogs and on X/IG.
Silver lining will be that clouds/rain will keep temps down.
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