A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be in effect until 8pm tonight.
- scattered damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph possible
- isolated large hail
- a “tornado or two” is also possible inside the entire watch area – I think that threat is mainly north of us
We’ll be covering this on X/IG. If either part of our county is included in a warning, we’ll go live on our YouTube channel. You can always view the radar on our website by using this link. Lightning + heavy rain will also be possible with any storm – could lead to some rainouts, depending on where the heaviest rain falls.
More rain/storms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, although we are not included in any severe probs. Rainouts would be possible again *if* HRRR model (below) is correct.
Model could be wrong tho, stay connected for future updates.
Our weather-maker for the remainder of the week will be now Tropical Storm Helene.
Helene is expected to make landfall somewhere along the Florida coast as a Major Hurricane sometime Thursday evening.
While we will not be dealing with a hurricane here, the system could bring us come heavy rain and maybe some wind.
“Confidence continues to increase for soaking rainfall late this week as the remnants of tropical system Helene impact the region.” says NWS Nashville.
The overwhelming majority of models track the center of Helene thru East TN which has its pros and cons.
Pros:
- this would put us on the east side of the system, making our severe threat very very low
- we could see some gusty winds, but probably 30mph or less
Cons:
- heavy rain will be a possibility, but widespread flooding does not look like a concern
“The best time for widespread and possibly heavy rainfall will be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Although the heaviest rain with Helene is expected to our east, Middle Tennessee is still in line for 2 to 3 inches of rain Thursday afternoon into Friday morning…” – NWS Nashville
I think the Euro ensemble does a good job of showing the timing of the majority of the rain (Thursday + Friday), with additional rainfall possible Saturday – early next week. It also represents the low-end rainfall scenario (~1″) and the upper-end scenario (4-5″). Although the low-end and upper-end scenarios aren’t expected, and 2-3″ is the most likely range.
Just too early to know if football games, Pilgrimage or other outdoor activities will be rained out just yet. Confidence has increased in the forecast since yesterday, but it is still not high.
Continue to check back in for future updates, old data is bad data. Forecast confidence will increase and we’ll be able to get into more specific timing. Any shift in the track of Helene will cause a change in the forecast!
Although temps will be in the upper 70s, it will feel muggy with all the moisture in the air.
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