This Evening – The Heat Continues
As a front approaches this afternoon, we’ll likely see some showers, but not much in the way of thunderstorms. We are in a marginal risk for severe weather through tonight:
The HRRR and NAM4 Models are not in great agreement on timing or quantity. Here’s 8 PM:
So, who do we believe? Neither….fully, that is.
My gut tells me that the HRRR model (1st and 3rd image) is a bit too fast bringing the front in and pushing it through. However, I also think the NAM4 model is waaaaay overdoing it in terms of how much rain we’ll get.
To add another perspective, NWS Nashville gives us a 20% chance for rain today.
All that being said, expect some scattered showers and a few storms beginning mid-to-late afternoon and hanging around through about 10 PM.
*Note: as of 5:30 PM, radar is revealing that the HRRR model scenario is likely the winner here.
Mild temperatures and muggy conditions will carry us through to Wednesday morning.
WEDNESDAY – Another Hot One – Wake Up: 74º, High: 92º
High temperatures will once again be in the low 90°s tomorrow, with heat index values near 100°.
It’ll be very hot today, but it will be even hotter tomorrow and Thursday.
So, as we stare another week of very hot afternoons in the face, here’s a look at some heat safety tips from NWS Nashville:
More sunshine is expected tomorrow as an area of high pressure settles back into our area following the passage of the cold front.
However, there is still a little chance of some thunderstorm and shower activity as things heat up in the afternoon hours, by models are painting tomorrow as dry.
THURSDAY – Higher Heat Index Values = Higher Heat Danger – Wake Up: 73º, High: 95º
As high temperatures climb to the mid 90°s by Thursday, that will push heat index values to near 105° in the afternoon.
Please be extra careful as you’re outdoors all this week!
From yesterday’s blog:
“Usually in the summer, there’s plenty of potential thunderstorm energy in place, but no real large scale forcing mechanism (like a cold front) to set it off.
That may change Friday night or Saturday as the general weather pattern shifts.
Both the GFS and Euro weather models are advertising the approach of a cold front. In an environment with plenty of potential energy and shear, we may see a storm “event.” However, this would by very unusual for late June, so this far away we need to remain skeptical of this set-up. More details tomorrow. We’ll see if the weather models hold on to it.”
Update: Models have hung onto it. But, in the world of weather, there is still plenty of time for things to change. Bottom line is that showers and storms will likely be around for most of the weekend. We’ll keep you updated.
From Kaiti: Sorry for the long post! Sometimes I drink too much coffee 🙂
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Categories: Forecast Blogs