Heating Up

Editor’s Note: Y’all crashed this site a few times yesterday with 50,399 page views. I’m working through various possible low/no-cost solutions to bring stability and quality during these high volume events. So, for now, we’re going to go light on the graphics and bells and whistles to help prevent another crash. read more

Watching The Supercells

Posted on Monday, April 28, 2014 @ 2:48 pm by David

To help ease the “crash” problem (we’ll fix this issue in the future), I’ve pared this page down to essential info only.

A Particularly Dangerous Situation” (PDS) Tornado Watch is in effect for southern Middle Tennessee until 9 PM. This includes those counties just S of Williamson. Both Davidson & Williamson Counties are currently excluded from the Watch.

There’s a “boundary,” stretched west to east across Middle Tennessee, separating warm/humid/unstable air to the south from cooler/less humid/more stable air to the north. Those along and S of the boundary are included in the Tornado Watch. Those north of it are excluded from the Tornado Watch.

At 2:30 PM, the boundary was located about 40 miles south of I-40. The boundary is mostly stationary, or maybe edging very slowly N. Storms feed off the warm/humid/unstable air currently located S of the boundary. This means we are currently on the “good” (North) side of the boundary.

Tornadic supercells in central Mississippi at 2:30 PM will move rapidly NE into southern Middle Tennessee around 4 PM. We will be watching those supercells in case (1) the boundary lifts N into Nashville, paving the way for the supercells, and/or (2) the supercells punch N through the boundary and into Williamson, and maybe Davidson, Counties. We’re hopeful these storms, if they continue their current course, will miss us comfortably to the south and southeast. We’re also hopeful we won’t heat up fast enough to develop our own supercells.

No Warnings will be posted to this website. Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter, and multiple other reliable weather sources, for more information.

Hail, Tornadoes Possible This Afternoon/Evening

Posted on Monday, April 28, 2014 @ 12:15 pm by David

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Is it safe for me to drive from “x” to “y”? — Keep in mind we’re only looking at two counties. If your travel takes you elsewhere, I’m not the person to be answering that question. I also am very uncomfortable telling you when you should travel. My goal is to give you the information you need, and leave 100% of the decision to you. read more

T’Storms Today; Supercells Forecast Monday

Posted on Sunday, April 27, 2014 @ 7:32 am by David

We start with this from our NWS-Nashville:

Today – Rain, Non-Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon

Last night, I wrote that the Hi-Res NAM weather model thought it would rain this afternoon. Skeptical, I wrote that I’d wake up and see what the morning runs of the HRRR said, because the HRRR usually does a decent job. Well, here it is: read more