Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Trends suggest the hail/wind threat — at least the higher-impact portion of the threat — is sliding east.

Probability of Hail

8 AM Outlook:

11:30 AM Outlook:

This means that the probability of hail 1″+ in diameter occurring within 25 miles of us is still 30%, but we’re on the western edge of that 30% area.

Also notice the removal of the shaded (“hatched”) area denoting the potential of 2″+ diameter hail within 25 miles of us.

Damaging Winds

At 8 AM, the probability of 58+ mph winds occurring within 25 miles of us was 30%:

11:30 AM Outlook says it’s now back to 15%:

The Hi-Res NAM model wants to keep the storm activity along or east of I-24. Here it is at 9 PM tonight:

The HRRR also keeps storm activity E of I-24:

Tornadoes remain excluded from the outlook. Officially, the probability of a tornado is “less than 2%.” We are not worried about tornadoes.

Keep an eye on it.

No watches or warnings will be posted to this website. Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter and multiple other reliable weather sources this afternoon & tonight.