A storm may pop this afternoon but the HRRR is clear. Storms more likely east of us. Small hail and gusty winds the potential hazards. We are not severe outlooked.

1. Heat and Humidity Thu-Fri. Temps near 90 with dewpoints mid to upper 60s. Summer peeking out of the gopher hole.

2. HRRR has storms Thu PM rush hour. May go north, maybe not. We’ll watch this. No severe expected here. Lightning, heavy rain instead. read more

1. Scattered showers possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Lightning and rainouts the only hazards. Storm coverage should be limited Weds afternoon. Thursday probably dry, but hot.
2. Summertime humid airmass expected Thu and Fri. Dewpoints in the mid 60s. First real one of the szn.

3. Severe weather possible Friday.

Severe weather not forecast for us this week (western Ken. has a Thursday slight risk extending north through Ill., Ind., and Wisco.).

Rain, lightning, heat as minor hazards ahead.

1. Late Afternoon/Early Evening downpours, lightningstorms possible. Coming up as one wave. Not a total washout. Protect Mom. HRRR illustrates. Time stamp upper right.

2. More rain Monday, but probably not all day. HRRR has morning rain then some scattered evening showers. read more

1. Weekend. HRRR model thinks light rain will move in then break up early tonight. Keep plans. No lightning.

Downpours may pass through anytime Sunday, but most of us should stay dry or just a little bit rained on for Mother’s Day. Keep plans.

2. Rainout Alert for Monday and Tuesday. HRRR only runs out to 8 AM Monday but we see heavy rain working north for Monday afternoon. read more

A system passing to our south continues to wobble, tossing us forecast uncertainty. Latest HRRR is wobbling north and bringing us nuisance rain chances:

Three Things.

1. Light rain may drift into our area Saturday afternoon/night. We expect neither lightning, flooding, nor hazards. Keep your plans.
2. Same for Sunday, except we might be able to squeeze out a rogue lightning strike or two in the afternoon. Mostly OK tho. Don’t forget Mom. Retain plans.
3. Rainout Alert. “Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected for Monday. Instability will increase but should remain below 1000 j/kg. Overall profiles are not going to be supportive of severe storms with very poor lapse rates but bulk shear will push to 25-35 knots. Right now severe thunderstorms are looking unlikely but afternoon thunder can be expected. The upper level low will start to lift out of Tenn. on Tuesday but shower and thunderstorm activity will linger for the afternoon and evening.” Nice prose, NWS-Nashville.

FOENUS: We may hit 90° later next week. read more

Steep lapse rates aloft punched up large hail today. Hail was technically severe (1″ in diameter) for many, especially in north Franklin to Cool Springs to Brentwood. Wind driven hail made impacts worse. You may have a hail damaged roof. read more

A few may see frost early Sunday morning.

Winds a bit gusty Sunday and Monday afternoons. Gusts mid 20 MPHs.

Rain possible late Monday night into Tuesday. Hi res models are out of range. Overall setup looks weak. “I’d be surprised to see a quarter of an inch of precipitation out of it,” said NWS Nashville. read more

1049 AM UPDATE: Last two HRRR model runs show a brand new potential concern: mid afternoon supercells somewhere in Middle TN which could produce tornadoes. This was not in the forecast (or in any of the data) this morning, so take it with a grain of salt. We don’t hide data from you. Takeaway: pay attention to the weather ALL DAY, not just tonight. read more