A few may see frost early Sunday morning.
Winds a bit gusty Sunday and Monday afternoons. Gusts mid 20 MPHs.
Rain possible late Monday night into Tuesday. Hi res models are out of range. Overall setup looks weak. “I’d be surprised to see a quarter of an inch of precipitation out of it,” said NWS Nashville.
Models continue to struggle. Forecasters are ready to fire these models into the sun.
MORNING RAIN
This was the radar at 8 AM. All this rain is supposed to move north into Ky. as shown by the red arrows. But it’s also creeping a bit east — the white arrows — right over Davidson Co. Not sure how far into town it’ll get.
1049 AM UPDATE: Last two HRRR model runs show a brand new potential concern: mid afternoon supercells somewhere in Middle TN which could produce tornadoes. This was not in the forecast (or in any of the data) this morning, so take it with a grain of salt. We don’t hide data from you. Takeaway: pay attention to the weather ALL DAY, not just tonight.
I’ve just been on a conference call hosted by NWS-Nashville for emergency management and media for tonight and tomorrow. I started NSWX in 2010 and can count on one hand the times I’ve heard briefings and seen model data like this. I hope none of it materializes. This is your classic “low probability of a high impact event” x 2.
FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON – EARLY EVENING
Sprinkley rain may pull up. Meh.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
The problem: I’m not sure when it will stop. Most of the rain should be gone by Sunday mid-morning, but for the rest of Sunday we could get a stray shower. Poncho up, fans. Tailgates need tents!
Behold below! Another sourced forecast from available model data + NWS-Nashville guidance. Delivered with fear and trembling.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING (AS IN, TOMORROW)
Snow, brief and inconsequential.
Rain – maybe heavy at times – expected before dawn Tuesday morning.
Disclaimer
Very light showers Tuesday night may become a narrow band of snow early Weds morning.
Temps plummet Weds and Thurs …
