Quick Glance Forecast

Warmer, Rain/Storms To Start the Work Week

Southerly winds and moisture return will “restart” on Sunday night into Monday morning — this will lead to climbing temperatures and increased chances for rain.

It appears the Monday morning commute could be wet. Scattered showers into Tuesday are a good bet, with a couple storms possible but not overly likely. Tuesday, the mercury will approach 70º!

Wednesday is a day when instability will be the greatest, and this could aid in decent thunderstorm development. A preliminary look at CAPE (storm food) forecasts from the GFS show a respectable amount of unstable air on Wednesday at lunchtime:

In lieu of this, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a 15% risk for severe weather already for Wednesday:

SPC Discussion:

...lower MS Valley and TN Valley on Wednesday... Strong belt of mid-level flow coupled with increasing low-level moisture will probably support marginal-moderate buoyancy with a strong shear profile. The timing of a cold front appears to converge on Wednesday as it sweeps through the area. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast, some of which could be severe. read more

This Just Isn’t Winter – Near Springtime High Temps

We cannot emphasize enough how unusually warm these last several days have been. The trend will continue through Friday before, finally, a cold front sweeps away the unseasonably hot air and replaces it with air ~20 to 30º cooler.

Using the NWS graphical forecast, look at the temperature trend for the next several days:

In 24 hours, a 33º difference in high temperature forecasts…wow.

Windy, Storms Possible Friday, Some Strong

As mentioned, a cold front will send us back to more winter-like temperatures. In order to get to that point, however, we will have to make it through a chance for rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. In addition, winds could gust as high as 30 mph during the day on Friday.

The latest thinking from NWS Nashville:

The actual fropa (frontal passage) will occur Friday evening with showers and tstms accompanying the front. With high temps reaching 80 degrees on Friday, there will be plenty of lower level instability. Furthermore, as some upper level energy begins to catch up with the boundary, organized linear omega fields will engage with favorable shear levels. Thus, a round of strong to svr tstms looks possible, mainly for areas east of I-65, during the evening. Damaging winds looks to be the primary threat. read more

Wet At Times, Clearing Rainbow

We expect the light rain to continue on/off through the evening. By midnight, rain will be winding down and moving east of us.

Minimal Sunshine, Still Very Warm

Wednesday and Thursday will remain warm, despite a good bit of cloud cover. Tonight’s rain should end during the AM hours of Wednesday. A slight chance of showers exists for Thursday, but nothing too significant that would warrant changing your plans. Check out the highs for these two days, both well into the 70s: read more

Some Dry Time This Afternoon

Showers have continued to move off to the east, with some clearing beginning to move in. Rest of the evening looks to be tranquil with clouds continuing to move out.

Sunday Wins the Weekend, No Doubt

Southerly flow will continue pumping in warm air on Sunday. Most areas will soar above 70° during the afternoon! Any reason to get outside will be worth it. read more

Returning To Above-Normal Temps

Tomorrow, high temps will be pushing 70°.

Updated Quick Look Forecast

In consequence to warmer weather comes the opportunity for showers on Saturday afternoon. The GFS below indicates a light lunchtime rain that quickly exits to the east by early Sunday morning. read more

Current Radar

Valentine’s Day Rain

Maybe some chocolate can make up for it?

Updated: We have entered a lull in the wet weather. Via the latest HRRR model, rain is expected to continue eventually resume:

A much better coverage of light to moderate rain will work into our area later this evening, continuing overnight. read more

Current Radar

Socked In Under A Deck of Clouds

Better chances for showers arise later this evening into Sunday morning as a cold front approaches the area. High-resolution models depict this fairly well:

Behind any rain tomorrow morning, winds will become gusty out of the north-northwest (as high as 25mph). Temperatures Sunday will also be falling out of the morning 60s and into the 50s by dinnertime. read more

Current Radar

More Warmth Ahead!

If you’re not a fan of the cold temps and have gotten used to a short-sleeves style winter, by tomorrow, you’ll be back to the summer wardrobe.

Southerly winds will begin overnight tonight. However, low temperatures tomorrow morning will still be below freezing. It won’t be until the afternoon on Friday that we feel the effects of southerly flow. read more

Current Radar

Quick Look at the Next Several Days read more

Current Radar

Quick Look Forecast

Mother Nature Setting Up to Cause Ruckus

Not tonight, not tomorrow, but Monday and Tuesday will be quite interesting. Highs in the 50s will prosper this weekend with a mix of sun and clouds, especially Sunday. Winds are switching from easterly to southerly, and once this happens, temps will start to become noticeably warmer. read more