Quick Look Forecast
Mother Nature Setting Up to Cause Ruckus
Not tonight, not tomorrow, but Monday and Tuesday will be quite interesting. Highs in the 50s will prosper this weekend with a mix of sun and clouds, especially Sunday. Winds are switching from easterly to southerly, and once this happens, temps will start to become noticeably warmer.
A slight chance of rain is forecast for tonight as a very small amount of moisture swings across the mid-state. This is more of a “don’t be caught off-guard” than a “heavy rain, you need the umbrella” event.
HRRR Model Loop, shows a few showers late tonight/overnight
Real Rain Begins Monday
Around 10AM-12PM Monday, to be *kind-of* exact. You’ll want to have your umbrella/rain gear for this.
Temperatures will be increasing as a warm front lifts north through our two-county area. Afternoon highs will rise into the middle 60s and winds may also get gusty by the afternoon/evening (as high as 25 mph).
The Main Event – Tuesday
GFS Model Loop Tuesday AM – Wednesday AM
NWS Nashville’s statement on a stormy Tuesday forecast:
...a strong cold front comes together just to our west and sweeps through rapidly on Tuesday evening. GFS forecast soundings show steep enough lapse rates Tuesday afternoon and evening for moderate CAPE, and we can also expect a 50-55 kt 850 mb jet in the pre-front environment (a little stronger than what the solutions were showing 24 hrs ago). While the SPC still does not project any severe weather risk for Middle Tennessee in its extended outlook, we will continue to highlight the potential for strong to severe storms in this morning`s HWO.
So how will this impact your Tuesday?
Strong to severe storms will be possible from mid-day through the afternoon hours. The main threats right now appear to be damaging winds and large hail, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting our risk for severe weather and will be monitoring developments closely:
One ingredient that really helps convection (storms) get going is CAPE. This is what the GFS projects midday Tues.:
For this time of year, these values are plenty to fuel thunderstorms and is a reason we’ll be keeping a close eye on severe weather potential.
Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter for up-to-the-minute information like the following:
Several uncertainties remain re Tuesday storm potential, but right now it looks like hail & damaging winds are more likely than tornadoes.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) February 4, 2017
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs