The first disturbance feat. rain “should fizzle on Saturday,” all quotes from the NWS-Nashville forecast discussion. So that looks good, but note: side-eye:

• Check back tomorrow. HRRR model had a line of rain approaching Saturday morning. It should weaken but let’s not be supercertain about that.

Second disturbance ETA Saturday night. “We look for good chances for rain and some lightning Saturday night through Sunday morning.” read more

1–Strong, scattered afternoon storms possible today.

Storms forming near Memphis may arrive here this afternoon. Not everyone will see a storm. Those that do will want to be inside. We are not severe-outlooked by SPC; however, our local NWS office notes enough instability and shear to power storms up. This is suggested by the HRRR model below. Storms may be strong, maybe severe, with damaging straight line winds the main severe feature. Data does not support tornado. Hail, if any, will be small. Heavy rainfall running above already saturated grounds may create temporary, localized, but real flooding in the “usual spots.” We’ll be covering this on Twitter/X today. On YouTube Live if any warnings are issued. Activity should end after dark. read more

Most of the energy has been wrung out of the atmosphere. Sun is going down. Both good news for outdoor events tonight.

428 PM Two Williamson Co lightningstorms thinking about converging east of 65

Watch out for flooding near Thompson’s Station / Spring Hill. NWS issued Flood Advisory: “Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.” read more

405 PM another cloud to ground lightningstorm moving from Fairview toward Brentwood.

119 PM Rainout coming into Franklin. Lightning-capable.

Monthly tornado siren test in Williamson County is at 1:00 pm. Just a test. No worries.

All these energy consuming storms this afternoon + lack of daytime heating = probably (?) good news for Morgan Wallen 2nite. 🪑