1. Weekend. HRRR model thinks light rain will move in then break up early tonight. Keep plans. No lightning.

Downpours may pass through anytime Sunday, but most of us should stay dry or just a little bit rained on for Mother’s Day. Keep plans.

2. Rainout Alert for Monday and Tuesday. HRRR only runs out to 8 AM Monday but we see heavy rain working north for Monday afternoon. read more

A system passing to our south continues to wobble, tossing us forecast uncertainty. Latest HRRR is wobbling north and bringing us nuisance rain chances:

Three Things.

1. Light rain may drift into our area Saturday afternoon/night. We expect neither lightning, flooding, nor hazards. Keep your plans.
2. Same for Sunday, except we might be able to squeeze out a rogue lightning strike or two in the afternoon. Mostly OK tho. Don’t forget Mom. Retain plans.
3. Rainout Alert. “Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected for Monday. Instability will increase but should remain below 1000 j/kg. Overall profiles are not going to be supportive of severe storms with very poor lapse rates but bulk shear will push to 25-35 knots. Right now severe thunderstorms are looking unlikely but afternoon thunder can be expected. The upper level low will start to lift out of Tenn. on Tuesday but shower and thunderstorm activity will linger for the afternoon and evening.” Nice prose, NWS-Nashville.

FOENUS: We may hit 90° later next week. read more

Steep lapse rates aloft punched up large hail today. Hail was technically severe (1″ in diameter) for many, especially in north Franklin to Cool Springs to Brentwood. Wind driven hail made impacts worse. You may have a hail damaged roof. read more

Low to medium rain chances will be with us from Wednesday thru at least Monday.

Good news is that it likely won’t rain every day and rainfall totals look fairly light.

NWS Blend of Models thinks we only see about 0.5 – 1″ of rain thru Monday evening – good news for ballfields. read more

Tuesday will be our only certain dry day of this week – although I feel fairly confident most of us will get at least one more dry day out of this week, just hard to say which one!

GFS and Euro models are not in good agreement about how this week plays out – except for both agreeing that we’ll have no severe worries. read more

While there are no shortages of rain chances this week, overall, it doesn’t look like a lot of rain – so there’s good news.

On/off (mostly off) light showers will continue to move thru for the remainder of today (Sunday). NBD, just a nuisance. read more

Unfortunately we just cannot shake these rain chances.

Rain will be on/off (mostly on) thru early this afternoon before transitioning to being more scattered in nature for the remainder of today. Thankfully we won’t have any severe weather to deal with, but you could hear the occasional rumble of thunder. No good news for rolly ball games. read more

Well, good news is that we should be rain-free for the remainder of the day – knock on wood.

Rain returns Saturday morning, lasting thru the afternoon. Not a good forecast for rolly ball games.

Not expecting any severe weather, but we could see an embedded thunderstorm or two. Most evening plans should be mostly dry – besides a possible quick shower or two. read more

An isolated shower/storm will be possible thru this evening, with a low chance of a storm reaching severe criteria. Only hazards today would be gusty winds and/or small hail. Not worried about tornadoes today. read more

As new model data continues to come in, thinking on timing and coverage of rain/storms has changed a bit from previous days.

Still think most of us stay dry today (Wednesday) with the exception of maybe a quick shower or two for a few folks. No severe weather expected, and any shower/storm would collapse fairly quick. read more