Our local NWS office issues a technical forecast discussion at least twice a day. They’re filled with information, and often contain terms that are understood by the weather community, but perhaps, not many others. However, today’s discussion is perfect for just about everyone. Didn’t see much of a need to re-invent the wheel…except for maybe substituting a word or two. Read on.
From NWS Nashville re: Saturday’s Rain Chances:
We continue to look for development of a [storm complex] up to our northwest
tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by
Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it
encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee.
Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the
remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday.
We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main
result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers
that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events.
Showers, and some storms are already moving thru the area and will continue to do so throughout the day, as illustrated below by the imperfect HRRR model.
There is a decent amount of CAPE (storm fuel) out there, but very little to no wind energy. These storms may become strong briefly, with some gusty winds and small hail, but will not be able to hold on for very long. Flash flooding potential today is low – but not zero. Slow moving storms will have the potential to drop a lot of rain in not a lot of time.
It’s that time of the year to start playing the Wattery. All will enter, few will win.
HRRR model suggests storms with lightning start popping up around 4 or 5 pm today, with activity slowing down after sunset. Not everyone will see rain, but those that do may have to temporarily relocate indoors and wait for the lightning to pass.
Some beautiful weather to close out May, lots of sun, not a lot of heat + humidity. Enjoy while it lasts!
An unsettled pattern moves in Saturday and will be in no rush to leave.
Saturday midday/afternoon looks like the most likely ETA for rain/storms. No severe weather expected for us, those chances are to our west, but can’t rule out a strong storm or two. Having a back-up plan for outdoor activities won’t be a bad idea. Details still a bit fuzzy, check back in for updates.
