Rain is likely on Halloween – just the exact timing is still up in the air.
Best way to get a grasp on timing is to dive in the models, which can still be wrong!
The latest HRRR model (below) shows a line of moderate rain moving thru during the afternoon and evening, mostly out by 8pm or so, with lingering on/off showers possible.
Models continue to indicate that we could be in for some rain Thursday afternoon and evening. While exact timing is still iffy, current guesstimates are not the best news for trick or treating.
The Euro (left) and GFS (right) continue to be quite consistent in agreement with rain in the area during prime trick or treat time.
Models continue to indicate Halloween may be a wet one.
While the week up until Thursday will be dry, a cold front will approach us and bring us our rain chances.
The GFS, Euro, and ICON model continue to be consistent with timing, showing a rainy time for candy getting. While the NAM model thinks maybe the rain holds off just a tad, allowing for some dry trick or treating.
Still our only rain chance in the next 7 days is the potential for a sprinkle, maybe a quick shower Friday night thru Saturday morning.
“NBM has a slight chance pop for Friday night in our northern counties, but a shower appears possible area wide Friday night into Saturday per GFS/ECMWF.” – NWS Nashville AFD
Today is the 23rd consecutive day of no rain. That is no good.
The only chance of rain in the next week, and it’s not very promising, is Friday night into Saturday morning.
And by chance of rain, the current probability of seeing any measurable rainfall is ~10%. The odds are certainly against us, and at most it would be a quick sprinkle. Nothing of significance.
