Current Radar

Quick Look Forecast

Warm Up and Rain Down

Update: A slow warm up through the weekend begins tonight. Winds will shift to the south tomorrow, initiating the conveyor belt of warmer air. Overall, tomorrow is nice for a winter’s day with lots of sunshine!

Keep in mind, a few light rain showers may speckle the radar overnight Saturday into the day on Sunday, but any appreciable rain is going to hold off until Monday-Tuesday.

A big warm up is in store for Monday when afternoon highs will reach the 60s! Be ready to break out the shorts again.

However. the warm up will be associated with showers Monday as a front lifts north through the area. This initial wave of energy precludes a strong cold front sweeping through Tuesday night.

NWS Nashville commenting on Tuesday’s rain/storm chances:

At this time, strong storms (at least) appear likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. The GFS forecast soundings do show come CAPE associated with this environment, and both the extended models show a 45-50 kt 850 mb jet setting up in the pre-front environment. read more

Current Radar

Clouds Trying To Move Out, Some Sun Mixing In

Expect highs in the 40s as the weekend approaches with increased sunshine Friday and Saturday. You’ll still want the long sleeves and long pants, though.

Return of the Rain/Storms

A very slight chance for showers exists late Saturday and into Sunday AM. I have my doubts about this, and so do models like the GFS, which don’t show any rain during this period. read more

Current Radar

So is this a few flurries or should we be “flaking” out?

Don’t worry, the next 24 hours will not include the most snow we’ve ever had. But here’s what is being monitored:

Tonight Into Sunday Morning

UPDATED Latest High-Resolution Model Loop

Wait until the end of this loop to get a glance at the precipitation and its advancement. Also notice how there is a mixed bag of snow and rain.

Temperatures Sunday morning will hover around freezing until about 8-9 AM when they jump above 32º.

Impacts Sunday Morning:

Very few. Any light snow that falls will have a difficult time accumulating and no issues are expected on the roads. As mentioned, temps will quickly rise above freezing, aiding in the melting of any previous snowfall.

Sunday Night – Monday Morning

From NWS Nashville:

By Sunday evening, additional impulses (of energy) and cooling surface temperatures will bring a good chance for light snow showers. This is the time when most of the accumulation is expected. Sunday night lows will drop to the mid to upper 20s, so any travel problems that develop Sunday evening could linger into Monday morning work and school travel times. read more

Current Radar

No Hazardous Weather Anticipated

With all the talk about severe weather and heavy rain last week, Mother Nature is giving us a break for awhile. Speaking of last week’s rain, a new drought monitor has been released:

Latest US Drought Monitor has completely removed our 2 counties from drought after last week's rain. Seems like we should celebrate! ^al pic.twitter.com/oIilB9jSgU read more

Current Radar

Rain Showers Tomorrow

Have outdoor plans tomorrow? You might want to reconsider, as a decent opportunity for rain will enter stage right during the midday hours. The latest GFS shows the rain’s evolution:

Some of this activity could linger into Thursday AM, but the thing that’ll be most noticeable will be temperatures. A cold front that’s initiating these rain chances tomorrow will drop our temps back into the 20s and 30s overnight and the 40s for daytime highs. read more

Current Radar

Writer’s note: A complex forecast for much of the southern U.S. is playing out today, and in terms of us here, it should be much more subdued than areas to the southeast. If you have friends or family who are visiting/live in southern Georgia or northern Florida, today is a day, more important than any, to be weather vigilant. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH RISK (5 out of 5) for severe weather of all types and hasn’t done so since 2014. read more

Current Radar

Rain Should Make It Here Overnight, But Will Be Disintegrating

Update: more showers and storms are developing to our southwest once again. There is uncertainty regarding the arrival of rain tonight, but we think prime time is somewhere between 2 AM and 6 AM. These storms could produce heavy downpours but widespread severe weather will stay well to our south. Here’s the latest HRRR model (which has done a nice job recently) on predicting tonight’s rain/storm arrival: read more

Current Radar

Quick-Look Forecast

Rain, Heavy At Times, Moving East

Regarding heavier rain/flooding potential…

NWS Nashville thinks areas that are low-lying or have poor drainage issues will be most at risk for water accumulation:

A FEW PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. read more

Current Radar

Attention Turns To Heavier Rain Wed. PM – Thurs. PM

A surface low is expected to track from the Gulf Coast northward along the Mississippi River, increasing shower/thunderstorm activity across much of the mid-south. Rainfall here in Nashville could accumulate to 1″+ in some spots, considering the strength of this system. No severe weather is expected at this time.

GFS Forecast, Wed. 6PM – Fri. 12PM

Let’s compare rainfall totals…the GFS model (only computer guidance) versus the Weather Prediction Center’s human-refined forecast:

GFS Forecasted Rainfall through Friday 12PM…

…versus WPC Rainfall Forecast through 6AM Friday

Bottom line: it appears that 1″ of rain by Friday at noon is likely. Whether some spots receive 1.50″ or greater seems to be based on rainfall rates, which could be fairly steady on Thursday.

Thundery Weekend Weather

NWS Nashville thinks Saturday night through Sunday could be a bit bumpy:

In the ext fcst, An unsettled and mild pattern can be expected through the period, for the most part. A strong storm system will bring showers and some tstm activity Sat nt and Sun. An upper level low will track across the southeastern U.S. by Monday and may bring some cooler temps and some additional rainfall. read more

Current Radar

Cloudy, Cooler Night Ahead

Rain is moving through the area now, as projected, and will exit by later this evening. Clouds will continue to hang with us into Sunday, as simulated below:

HRRR Cloud Cover through Sunday AM

Additionally, some cooler air will creep into middle Tennessee later today/tonight as high pressure begins to build in. Winds will become northerly, assisting in the transport of colder temperatures. read more