Drier and Hotter Friday, Unsettled Memorial Day Weekend

Friday is a Quiet Day, Hotter!

Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected Friday as a small ridge of relatively higher pressure traverses middle Tennessee. In fact, a ten degree jump or so in afternoon temps is anticipated, with highs in the middle 80s under mostly sunny skies! It could still be a bit breezy with wind gusts up to 20 mph, but this time it’s out of the south-southwest. Hakuna matata…at least for Friday. Things start to change on Saturday.

An Uncertain But Concerning Memorial Weekend Forecast (Severe Stuff)

Saturday: Warm day, lots of instability, but the atmosphere has a lid on it. A stout cap will likely exist in the mid-levels of our atmosphere, keeping storms from developing over us. Activity will stay north with this solution for much of Saturday. *Keep in mind that if this cap would break, thunderstorms could rapidly develop during the day on Saturday, but right now, this looks less likely than the aforementioned solution.*

GFS Model Saturday-Monday

UPDATE…Saturday Night: Line #1 of showers and thunderstorms will roll in from the northwest with the potential for severe weather. All hazards are possible, but damaging winds and hail look to be the main concern at this time. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Sunday into Monday morning: After round #1 ends, the atmosphere could potentially set up to recharge (increasing instability) for another round of severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening. This would be considered round #2 and be along the southward-sinking cold front. All hazards of severe weather possible.

Officially, the Storm Prediction Center has us under a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms for Saturday evening/night:

Bottom line for Saturday Night-Sunday Night: Stay weather aware this weekend. Campers, fishers, grillers…there will be a lot of people trying to be outdoors this weekend. If you plan to be one of them, have a backup plan in the case of thunderstorms. Lightning alone poses a threat to anyone outdoors, much less severe storms. As forecasts evolve and become clearer, we will try to pinpoint the best times for outdoor activities, but it appears that Saturday (during the day) is the best opportunity.

5-Day Pollen.com Forecast