Details on Saturday/Sunday’s Severe Weather Potential

Posted on Friday, May 26, 2017 @ 5:12 pm by Caroline MacDonald

Increasing Clouds Overnight

For the remainder of our Friday, expect for calm conditions with clouds increasing as we move through the evening.

Other than that, enjoy your Friday evening!

About This Weekend’s Severe Weather Potential

Several rounds of showers and possibly severe weather can be expected for this weekend. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, have a rain plan in place and continue to keep an eye on the weather.

The National Weather Service included this message in their afternoon discussion today:

“Since severe weather is a possibility this weekend, we strongly encourage you to remain abreast of the latest weather forecast and be ready to seek shelter if severe weather warnings are issued for your area. Even though the main severe weather threat is expected Saturday night and Sunday, a few strong-to-severe storms are also possible Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well.”

There are still a lot of uncertainties surrounding tomorrow and Sunday, but this is what we know at this point.

Daytime Saturday

Models have had a very tough time deciding what will happen on Saturday during the day. Some models show us getting showers and thunderstorms, which could be severe. Others show no shower activity at all.

This afternoon, one of our short range models (the HRRR) began to come into range. This model, along with the NAM3, show us getting showers tomorrow morning.

HRRR thinks we'll have a round of storms I-40 and S at 7am tomorrow (pictured). Nam3 model agrees. Blog update coming… ^al pic.twitter.com/AzEL4X66nI

— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) May 26, 2017

Other models do not show this rain.

Bottom line, if storms begin to fire during the daytime hours, they could easily become severe. Any shower that develops at any point tomorrow will need to be watched.

Saturday Evening Through Sunday Morning

The “better” chance of severe weather still appears to be in the late evening on Saturday.

Timing

While severe weather can not be ruled during the daytime and evening, the main ETA for strong to severe weather is expected to be between 10 PM and 2 AM.

Models still have enough variance that there is no way to nail down an exact time “when” and “where”. Just know that severe weather is possible and the general consensus from the models is that it could come between 10 PM and 2 AM.

Severe Weather Concerns

We have been upgraded to an “Enhanced Risk” category from the Storm Prediction Center. This translates to there being a 30% probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of your location.

Generally speaking, the main concerns appear to be damaging winds, hail, and flooding. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out at this point.

In terms of flooding, the Weather Prediction Center has included us in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook. We sit right on the border of a Marginal/Slight Risk. This signifies that we could see a lot of rainfall and could see flooding issues in low-lying areas.

Saturday Takeaways

The best chance of severe weather comes in the evening to overnight hours, but showers/thunderstorms can not be ruled out during the daytime.
Damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding are the main concerns. The tornado threat is low, but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.
There are still a lot of variables at play. This forecast is likely to change by the end of the day. Consult multiple weather sources and check back often as this is an evolving forecast.

Sunday Daytime

Sunday daytime appears to be similar to Saturday daytime, but with a better chance of showers. Severe weather can not be ruled out during the daytime Sunday, but like Saturday, the “better” chance will come later in the afternoon to evening.

Sunday Afternoon to Evening

Another round of severe weather is possible late in the afternoon, through the evening, and into the overnight hours on Sunday. Uncertainties do remain on the timing and severity of Sunday’s storms.

Like Saturday, the main concerns are damaging winds, hail, and flooding. The tornado threat is low, but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out for Sunday either.

Memorial Day and Beyond

Showers and storms look to move out by Monday. Sunny skies will hang around for what should be a very nice Memorial Day. Highs will top off in the low to mid 80s to start next week.

If you have the day off on Monday, enjoy it!