Remainder of Black Friday
If you’re out tonight to catch any last minute deals, temperatures will be in the 40s. Bundle up!
Calm Weekend, Little Warmer
Under a dome of high pressure, we stay dry and find some more sunshine by Saturday and Sunday. Notice the afternoon high on Sunday in the low 60s: this will be a warm up influenced by a switch to southerly winds, also leading to an increase in atmospheric moisture.
The Big Story: A Cold Front, Rain and Thunderstorms
Starting with the big picture…
Monday will be filled with scattered showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. Also, expect gusty winds out of the south peaking at 20-25 mph. The main show is going to be a cold front sparking showers and thunderstorms, which isn’t expected to roll through until late Monday night and into early Tuesday morning.
The GFS is about 6-8 hours slower than the current European model, which means the European model moves the main line of storms through between 9PM Monday and midnight Tuesday; whereas, the GFS has the activity moving through 3AM-6AM Tuesday. Soon enough, these differences should be resolved and we will continue to monitor any timing changes.
A general timeline for thunderstorms, some of which could be on the strong side, would be from late Monday night (around midnight) into Tuesday morning (through 8AM).
Severe or Not?
Probably not, but I wouldn’t rule out a strong/isolated severe storm based on the rigor of this cold front. Two main ingredients needed for storms are shear and instability.
We will have a decent amount of wind shear, but not a lot of instability (shown above, no available energy to indicate instability). This is typical of a fall storm event. The expectation is that some pre-frontal cloudiness and shower activity may hinder any severe weather from really getting going.
A few showers possible start during the day on Monday, with the main line of rain/storms moving through overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Heavy rain at times will lead to an accumulation of 1-3″ possible, with higher amounts to the west.
Days 1-5 Total Precipitation Accumulation (Weather Prediction Center)
Clouds and showers may continue into early Wednesday as post-frontal moisture allows for some more rain to be squeegee’d out.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs