Tonight: Rain Chances Continue – 9 PM 78°
Fairly scattered showers will continue through the rest of the evening.
As displayed by the HRRR, most scattered showers will still hold together into the overnight hours, but should lose strength:
Not expecting any severe weather with these thunderstorms, but we have seen periods of heavy downpour and frequent lightning associated with them.
For a more precise breakdown of the current storms moving through, be sure to follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx . We will be tweeting throughout the evening covering the thunderstorms and showers moving through the area.
Into the overnight period, that soupy airmass in place will help to keep those showers in place, hence why we have a chance of showers through the night.
Temps will remain fairly warm overnight only dropping into the low 70s.
Saturday: More Rain, Thunderstorm Chances Increase – Wake Up 69° High 84°
The NWS best describes what tomorrow may look like:
“Our chance of convection [rain, storms] will increase dramatically Saturday and Saturday night as moisture becomes more abundant with plenty of instability already in place.”
We have seen a lot of rain and a few pop-up showers over the past few days; however, tomorrow’s environment will be less random. Showers and strong thunderstorms are much more likely develop, especially after noon and into Saturday night.
Certainties about timing varies when you look at the models:
Global models like the Euro and GFS show us having showers throughout most of the day.
Short term models like the NAM, however, show us staying fairly dry through most of the day with the best chance of showers being in the late afternoon into the evening hours and possibly overnight.
Which model to believe? Very difficult to say. Rain is possible all day long, but we think it’s more likely in the afternoon/evening than in the morning.
(By the afternoon today, the HRRR will begin to reach the early morning hours for Saturday so we may get a better understanding of the general trend for tomorrow).
Tomorrow we do have a “marginal” risk (think 1 on a 0-5 scale) of seeing any severe weather:
Main concerns at this time are damaging winds and small hail.
Sunday: Maybe Some More Rain – Wake Up 68° High 83°
Right now, best chances to see rain on Sunday seem to be in the AM hours. The system causing all this rain should be pulling away some time Sunday. A few models show rain sticking around through the afternoon, but we think most of it should fall in the morning.
A cold front will be moving through our area on Sunday; when that front develops and moves through, or chance of showers should leave with it.
Cool and dry air will move in behind that cold front bringing our temps down into the mid-to-low 60s Sunday night.
Next Week: Looks to be Great
Clear skies with little to no rain chances next week.
Allergy Report: Pollen.com 5-Day Forecast
Rain, then cooler temps on a NW wind, mean allergy relief.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs