Tonight: Rain Chances Diminish, Pushing E of I-65 – 9PM 77°
Update: So far today, convection has been slow to begin along the I-65 corridor in our two counties. Most activity is staying south and east of Davidson and Williamson Counties.
However, a few showers and storms still remain possible this evening for our area. Anything that develops will have the potential to produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. The HRRR Model may be overdoing it a tad, but here’s a general idea of what radar could look like for the next few hours.
The Storm Prediction Center still has us under a “marginal” or “1 on a scale of 0 to 5” risk for severe weather. NWS Nashville says “don’t be fooled by this weak boundary when so much moisture and instability is in place…”
Timing: Through 10PM
Impacts (greatest to least threat): Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty/damaging winds
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Friday: Mostly Cloudy, Chance of Storms – Wake Up 68° High 84°
With that weak boundary stalling out nearby and moisture transport from the south not leaving our doorstep, unsettled weather will continue on Friday. Expect mostly cloudy skies to start off and maybe a lingering shower from overnight.
By the afternoon, more showers and some storms will fire up in variety of strength and size. A few could be strong with heavy downpours and gusty winds. The 4KM NAM gives its idea of what radar may look like tomorrow afternoon/evening:
Otherwise, expect these storms to dissipate by late evening, with temperatures falling back into the 70s. Not everyone gets wet on Friday, but those who do may get soaked. Have something rain repellent with you, preferably something that will stay intact.
Saturday: Greater Rain Chance, Heavy Downpours Possible – Wake Up 68° High 84°
Let’s start out by saying…the NAM probably overdoes it a tad. However, thunderstorm coverage is expected to be a bit greater again on Saturday as the main trough swings through our region. The mid-state will be the focus for showers and storms, some producing locally heavy rainfall, beginning early afternoon and continuing through the evening.
Saturday looks to be pretty soggy right now, but as we get in range of higher resolution models, timing and coverage can be better forecasted. Stay tuned on that…
Extended Outlook: Relief (Dry Weather) In Sight
Allergy Report: Claritin Pollen Forecast
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Categories: Forecast Blogs