Tonight: Storm Chances Continue, Non-Severe
More showers and a few storms will continue through the evening. Have the umbrella at your side.
Here’s how the HRRR model sees it:
UPDATE: Severe weather looks very unlikely this afternoon and evening.
We are only under a “marginal” severe risk (1 on a scale of 0-5) for the remainder of the day.
Remember, in the case of severe weather, no warnings are ever posted to this website. We post warnings and a lot more info @NashSevereWx on Twitter. You should follow multiple reliable sources for your weather information.
Sunday: PM Storms Possible, Some Strong – Early 63° High 82°
Update: Unlike this morning, the models are coming into better agreement on storm opportunities Sunday afternoon and evening.
4KM NAM at 5PM Sunday
The outlier is the GFS, which has our rain moving out already by 1-2PM on Sunday. This is the faster of the solutions and would lessen storm and severe storm chances.
The 4KM NAM, however, seems to hold onto our rain and storms a little longer, through 7-8PM in the evening.
This means that portions of Davidson and Williamson Counties may see a few afternoon pop up storms, some of which could be strong (damaging winds and hail possible), but they should quickly move east toward the Cumberland Plateau as the evening progresses.
Right now, we’re only under a “1 out of 5” marginally severe risk on Sunday. Again, hail and gusty winds would be the main threats. However, based on ample instability and supportive surface winds, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
Headed out to join in the KIDS ROCK festivities Sunday afternoon?
Take rain gear just in case, but rain coverage is still uncertain. Just a few sporadic storms developing by late afternoon would be the main rain worry for downtown Nashville. Hopefully these will hold off until after the festivities.
Otherwise, temperatures will be approaching 80, so enjoy!
Monday: Quieter Day, Still Cloudy – Early 58° High 74°
Rain will have made its exit, giving us an opportunity to dry out behind a cold front that passed through late Sunday. Temperatures drop a bit for highs, but overall, we stay mild and comfortable.
The allergy index for today looks suspiciously low, but with rain around, the sniffs and sneezes will decrease quite nicely.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs