Severe Threat Ending, More Rain Monday

Current Radar

Our Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. The threat is over. 

Monday – Rain – Early 61° High 73°

Models are now finally showing consensus on something, and that something is Monday rain. Confidence in this forecast is higher than Sunday’s forecast because there will be a forcing mechanism to initiate rain — a cold front very slowly working across our humid airmass.

That front gets hung up Monday, which will lengthen the time we can expect to get wet. Rain is mostly likely from 7 AM to 4 PM.

Thunderstorms are possible, but the shear will have moved east, so we aren’t expecting a severe weather event.

Rain amounts should be over 0.5″, signalling another Rain Out Alert for Monday night’s evening activities; however, later model trends suggest the rain may be more of an east-of-65 event, so there’s at least hope for outdoor stuff.

The GFS model puts the total rain for Monday night just over 1/2″:

Things Change Tuesday

Behind Monday’s cold front, a few weak impulses will create some small rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, but the real change will be temps.

Cooler weather is on the way.

Weekend Peek/Guess

Too soon to say with certainty, but we’ll be between two large closed low pressure systems — one over the Rockies, another over the eastern seaboard.

This should leave us dry.

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