We know, everyone is dying to see if the snow chances are increasing or decreasing for Wednesday night. BUT FIRST we have a couple days of rain to get through!
Monday: Enjoy the dry spell
At this point it looks like most of today stays dry with increasing clouds as the next rainmaker approaches. The good news is that even with cloudy skies our high will top out at 55° with a light wind. Not so bad for mid February! Grab a jacket if you’re headed out tonight as we drop back into the lower 40s. Tonight is really when we see our first chances for a light shower or two but most of the rain should hold off until later Tuesday.
Tuesday: Rain returns
That’s right, the rain is back in the forecast and will increase through the afternoon on Tuesday. The best chance for rain will be Tuesday night as the low approaches from the southwest. Some of this rain could be heavy at times but we are mostly expecting just a steady rain. While localized flooding is possible, it should not become a huge issue! Also, It is worth mentioning that areas to our south in Mississippi and Alabama may be dealing with severe weather Tuesday evening. This should remain to our south with our severe threat being very low Tuesday night. Total rainfall amounts should generally be around an inch.
4K NAM Simulated Radar shows pockets of heavier showers and storms moving towards the Nashville metro area at Midnight Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Yep, still raining
Low: 34° (very important)
As you wake up Wednesday morning it should still be raining and this will continue through most of the day with highs in the mid 50s. As the surface low moves just to our west our temperatures will start to drop. This will happen Wednesday afternoon as the as the low starts to pull off to the northeast. At this point in time it does not appear temperature will get below freezing Wednesday night. However, this type of set up is always tricky and usually surprises someone. With that said, will it be someone in middle Tennessee? There is a good bet flakes will fly but snow should have a hard time sticking with surface temps above freezing and warm ground temps. There have been a lot of models showing a lot of different outcomes but the WPC snow probability for Wednesday night should give us a good idea where accumulating snow will fall which is…. yep, north and west of middle Tennessee. There is still time to watch this but at this point it should NOT be the high impact type of snow. Just some flakes! As always, stay tuned for changes!
WPC Probability of 1+ inch of snow for Wednesday night:
Here is the rest of the week from the National Weather Service:
-Intern applicant James Bryant
Categories: Forecast Blogs