Forecast Blogs

Snow Wednesday Night. Yeah, Maybe, But….

Current Radar

Cool Off

A cold front will shove in some rain then pass by tonight, sweeping away the rain and dropping temps for Monday and Tuesday. It won’t be that much cooler, just “cooler” relative to this unseasonably warm spell.

More Rain Coming

Timing isn’t certain on this. Tuesday morning, it’s possible a disturbance moving into E Tennessee may clip us early in the morning.

After that moves away, Tuesday afternoon looks drizzly, and probably dry, as we wait for the next rainer to come — a potent rain-pregnant low pressure system from the SW

The GFS delivers that system late Tuesday night. The Euro is maybe 3-6 hours later, bringing it in early Wednesday morning.

Either way, Wednesday looks like a washout. If the center of the storm — which I’ve circled, above — tracks a little further north, we may hear some thunder with the rain. For now, we think just rain.

The “Back Side” Snow Chance Wednesday Night

These storms spin counterclockwise, so when they pass to our east, we get colder air and precipitation on the “back side.”

Late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, the Euro model produces light snow in Middle Tennessee. It’s very little, and it’s not everywhere.

Here’s the GFS on snow Wednesday night:

And then there is the NAM model, which drops a lot of snow out of the sky Wednesday night:

These models predict what will come falling from the sky, not what will “stick.” If you look under the hood of the NAM model, you’ll see that it has surface temps at 35°.

So, yeah, that’s not gonna stick. I can’t find any evidence — in any of the models — that surface temps will get below freezing, despite the snow falling overhead.

Even if surface temps were to get to, or even blow, freezing, snow would still melt on contact. Warm temps during the last several days + a morning full of warm rain = ground struggling to get below freezing.

Remember, this is a snow forecast in Middle Tennessee, the nature of it is that it’s always changing probably (old school Toad the Wet Sprocket reference!), so don’t switch off. Stay tuned. Follow multiple reliable sources for weather information.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

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