Rain While We Sleep
A cold front will broom some rain across Middle Tennessee tonight and overnight. The HRRR model illustrates:
This will help wash some of this snow away.
Gradually Colder Tuesday, Then Getting Warmer
When the rain ends, a cold northwest wind will blow our wee hour temps down from 46° into the mid-40°s, where they’ll be stuck until dark, when we start to move toward freezing.
We won’t make it to freezing until after midnight into Wednesday morning, when we may see some ice develop before dawn in spots that haven’t melted tonight or Tuesday.
After a chilly Wednesday (high 42°), we will warm slightly back up Thursday, Friday, which are seasonal norms.
Saturday, when we may hit 60°.
Rain isn’t in the forecast until maybe later Sunday, but it’s too far away to know right now.
Long Term – Rain/Storms Next Week? Maybe.
The latest run of the Euro model drives a robust surface low across southern Illinois next Tuesday. If that verifies (odds of this are low), it would set us up not for snow, but for rain and maybe some strong thunderstorms. However, the Euro ensembles (rather typically) dance the low all over the place, meaning, it’s not sure where it’ll be. Where it is matters! We’ve seen this before (in November) — hard to say where the all-important surface low will be 8 days away — so draw no conclusions.
For what it’s worth, the GFS model displaces the surface low much further north. That would reduce any storm concerns.
Nothing to get excited/worried about right now. Just something to watch.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs