Rain on the Way
Severe weather is brewing out west Monday. The Storm Prediction Center already has an Enhanced risk area in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. It’s even “hatched” — the shaded part — which indicates a potentially significant severe event.
This system will slowly move east and impact our mid-week weather. It should not be nearly as severe when it gets here. It probably won’t be severe at all.
Monday afternoon, a shortwave will eject from the storm system out west, and maybe shove some rain in here. It may pass NW of us, as the GFS shows:
But the NAM4 model shows Monday night rain, and NWS is calling for it.
Plus, if you look at the HRRR model, we may even see rain late in the morning. So much dunno with this:
Nothing strong or severe, just rain.
Tuesday, rain chances decrease during the day, then the real rain is expected later Tuesday night and into Wednesday. The ETA keeps getting pushed back, and it may not show up until after midnight into early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday looks to be a total washout as the slow moving cold front arrives.
That’s a lot of rain in a relatively fast amount of time.
Given the relatively dry last week, and the dry month overall, we think flooding concerns are minimal, but this is not going to be any fun at all to drive it. Rain should last until sundown Wednesday night.
Severe Worries? As this rain is arriving early Wednesday morning, there will be substantial shear, but no CAPE/instability, eliminating any real severe weather worries.
If we can toss any CAPE into the area Wednesday, which seems unlikely, there could be a problem. But so far so good. We are in the heart of secondary severe weather season, and so far, we’re 0 for 2. Good job everyone.
So Windy. Strong wind shear profiles may not cause rotating updrafts, but all that energy should be seen in the form of 20-25 mph sustained winds, with gusts to 40 MPH. If the models remain consistent, NWS-Nashville may need to issue a Wind Advisory. Add that to the rain, and your umbrella is doomed.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs