Sunday – No Rain, But Clouds Arriving – High 64°
Clouds coming in from the west:
But, today no rain, not much wind. Looks pretty good.
The Next Storm System
I bet your weather app looks something like this. Let’s add some details.
Out west, a severe weather event is shaping up on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center already has an Enhanced risk area in N Texas and SW OK.
Monday afternoon, rain could extend across Arkansas and arrive here, but models aren’t in agreement on that. Most notably, the Euro doesn’t think so, so only a slight chance of rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.
That chance will increase overnight and into Tuesday, when rain is expected. Rain may then slacken off Tuesday during the day, then the real rain is expected later Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Why? By Tuesday night, a strong cold front will have developed to our west, carrying a LOT of rain and moving very slowly our way.
As the storm system approaches Tuesday, any severe threat will be south and west of us:
Wednesday looks to be a total washout as the slow moving cold front arrives.
This is about 2″ of rain. That’s a lot of rain in a relatively fast amount of time.
Given the relatively dry last week, and the dry month overall, we think flooding concerns are minimal, but this is not going to be any fun at all to drive it. Rain should last until sundown Wednesday night.
Severe Worries? As this rain is arriving early Wednesday morning, there will be substantial shear (47 knots from the surface to 1 km up; SRH values 477 ms/2s 0-1km; SRH 646 m2/s2 0-3km), but no CAPE/instability, eliminating any real severe weather worries. If we can toss any CAPE into the area Wednesday, which seems unlikely, there could be a problem. But so far so good. We are in the heart of secondary severe weather season, and so far, we’re 0 for 2. Good job everyone.
Windy, Though. Those strong wind shear profiles may not cause rotating updrafts, but all that energy should be seen in the form of 20-25 mph sustained winds, with gusts to 40 MPH. If the models remain consistent, NWS-Nashville may need to issue a Wind Advisory. Add that to the rain, and your umbrella is doomed.