Tonight – Weakening Line of Storms
A cold front pushing storms our way is expected around midnight. HRRR model:
Same thing, zoomed in:
As the line arrives, it’ll be producing crazy-high wind shear:
But it’s got no CAPE.
Without CAPE, the storms won’t do much.
But with all that wind howling – 20 MPH, gusting to 35 MPH, even before the storms arrive – it’s hard to see anything beyond a Significant Weather Advisory or two and maybe an isolated Severe Thunderstorm Warning for damaging straight-line winds.
SPC still has us on the edge of the damaging wind threat area. We’re excluded from their hail and tornado risk areas.
We’ll be tweeting these storms tonight on Twitter @NashSevereWx, so if you want updates, see us there. Consult multiple reliable sources for your weather information.
After Tonight, Starts Looking Like Fall
Frost is possible overnight Friday and Saturday.
Middle of Next Week
Both the GFS and European models depict an impressive storm system in the middle of next week. The margin of error on this is pretty big, and there’s no real way to tell what, if anything, will happen severe-wise, but if the models we are looking at verify, it isn’t funny, and we won’t be making jokes. Stay tuned.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs