Weekend Rain ETA Guesses!

Current Radar – Pinch & Zoom

Today Until Friday: Dry & Awesome

No need to go day by day. Dry weather is here the rest of the week, thanks to strong high pressure. Morning lows will be 47°, 50°, and 54° Wednesday through Friday, with highs 74°, 78°, 78°, and 79° today through Friday.

The Weekend: Waiting for Rain

By Saturday, a steady south wind will shove humidity into Middle Tennessee. With dew points in the mid/upper 50°s, it will feel humid, which is a crime in October.

A cold front will approach, and get pretty close this weekend, but the front itself should not arrive until Monday. A warm (for October) rain along and ahead of the front is the story.

The big question isn’t “if.” The question is “when” it will start raining. There’s no model consensus; therefore, there is low/no confidence in the timing of this forecast.

NWS-Nashville thinks rain could start as early as Saturday afternoon, which is what the European model advertises. However, the American GFS model disagrees. It holds off the rain until Sunday well after noon, see below:

Such is forecasting. Five days away, and we aren’t very good.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.