Overnight – Maybe A Few Showers After Midnight
Showers and storms over Kentucky tonight have weakened. We will remain comfortably south of all that, with only our new, home grown, light showers to contend with beginning sometime around midnight (maybe a bit before then for Williamson County).
The Fourth – Watching For Rain – High 81°
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM Saturday.
Our skies remain full of precipitable water, which will translate to rain as shortwaves ripple through Middle Tennessee on Saturday. The question is: when will they ripple?
Weather models aren’t that much help in telling us when, and where. Generally, most (but not all) of the day looks dry, with only a few passing showers.
Then, rain activity increases as you get closer to:
The NAM4 model puts us in a rain sandwich at fireworks time, almost miraculously keeping us dry.
You don’t want to be between those two rain bands.
The GFS and Euro models keep all that rain about 80 miles south of what’s shown above in the NAM4. Either way, we have a decent shot of rain.
I’ll feel better about the forecast in the morning, when the HRRR will come into range. Maybe those model runs will help us build a consensus. I’ll be up tweeting, and I’ll update this site.
Notice the un-July temps. Only 81°! All in all, a cloudy, occasionally rainy day, with some potential to be wet for fireworks.
No severe weather is expected.
Sunday – A Slightly Lower Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms – High: 85°
The rain-shenanigan-maker shifts a bit east. We’ll still probably see some rain, but not that much.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.