Sunday – Hottest Day of the Year – High 93°
Dewpoints are also creeping toward the mid-60°s, so it’ll start getting humid, too.
Still no meaningful chance of rain during the day.
Tonight, we may see a shower squeeze out north of 40, but that looks unlikely. It’s just hard to completely rule out rain when temps go this high with this much moisture in the air.
Monday – Severe Weather Possible – High 89°
We will probably see some rain in the morning. The strong/severe storm concern will be late Monday afternoon and into Monday night.
The NAM4 model gives an ETA between 7 PM and 10 PM:
This ETA isn’t certain, but other models agree with it.
The Storm Prediction Center still has us in its Slight Risk for severe weather. Today, the SPC quantified the risk:
This does not appear to be a tornado event. It looks more like a damaging wind, small hail, lightning, frog-strangling typical June storm event.
After the big thunderstorms roll through, a steady, soaking rain is expected overnight and into Tuesday morning. In total, about 0.75″ or so.
Rest of the Week / CMA Fest: Your Typical Summertime Pattern
Hot, humid, and maybe an afternoon shower or storm.
What would CMA Fest be without heat and humidity? Because that’s what we are getting again this year.
NWS-Nashville wrote this morning that they expect a “moisture rich airmass” which will be full of instability and thunderstorm-making capability. As storms pop up in seemingly random places across the region each afternoon, “brief locally heavy rainfall with stronger showers and thunderstorms that form is certainly not out of the question… But no anticipation of any organized flooding potential [is expected] as of this time.” There will be days we may get a shower or storm, and other days we won’t. Just like every year.
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80°s, but the humidity will be oppressive.
You’ll need sunscreen, water, rain-tolerant shoes, umbrella, a radar app (and follow us and @NWSNashville and your favorite local TV weather folks on Twitter), and a poncho. You may not need the rain gear every day, but the chance of rain each day is high enough that it’s a good idea to plan to bring it with you.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.