Snow Disclaimer

Maybe a Little Snow Overnight

Current Temps and Radar

Today’s sunlight is helping the melting process. The problem is temperatures. We are not forecast to get above 30° today. It’s going to get even colder tomorrow. Above-freezing temperatures are not expected until Saturday.

Today we are watching a clipper system approach from the midwest.

Here it is at 9:40 AM:

We think it will arrive tonight/overnight, and bring a little bit of snow. Models are in general agreement on this.

By 11 PM, the HRRR has it approaching the Mississippi River:

The NAM4 model thinks the snow will turn on sometime around 3 AM…

…then continue off-and-on through about 10 AM. All indications are that this snow will be less than 1″, probably much less. This is nevertheless obviously unwelcome considering we are trying to melt and clear the ice we already have.

After the sun goes down Wednesday night, temperatures will tumble into the teens, and then into the single digits. The low temperature Thursday morning in Davidson County is -2°. Williamson County’s low is -3°.

It’s going to be hard to melt our ice considering the potential of an additional glaze of fresh snowfall, followed by subzero temperatures. We have never seen subzero temperatures this late in February in Nashville.

Our focus then turns toward yet another weather system expected Friday night into Saturday. For now, this looks like it could start as a snow on Friday afternoon/evening, then transition to sleet overnight, before turning to a soaking rain Saturday as temperatures rise above 40°.

This forecast will be similar to this past weekend: it’s all about the track of the low pressure center. If it tracks one way, it will just be a rain event. If it tracks another way, it will be a snow event. Current indications suggest the low will track right over our area, and produce a snow-to-rain event. Right now, we don’t think this will be a winter storm, but as it was made painfully obvious this weekend, weather models aren’t good enough to pinpoint the exact track of a low pressure center to enable a forecaster to communicate any meaningful level of confidence in precipitation type this far away.  Uncertainty reflects understanding, not a lack of skill or effort in trying to get the forecast “right” (whatever that means).

A few other things:

Those looking for road conditions can click here or, more specifically, review the TDOT Smartway traffic cameras scattered all over the city. We are very uncomfortable advising you to drive, or not to drive, somewhere. So, we won’t do it. Also, we do not track weather conditions and certainly not road conditions outside Davidson and Williamson Counties. It’s not that we don’t want to answer your questions, it’s that we don’t have enough information to do so in a responsible way.

Flight info can be found here.

We do not comment on the potential for schools to close. Yes, like everyone else, we have opinions about whether they should be closed or not, but we keep those opinions to ourselves. One small concern is that someone might mistake our opinion about closing school with an official decision. More than that, we don’t have people driving all over both counties before dawn trying to determination if roads are passable.

Finally, thank you to all of you for your kind words. It’s our privilege and blessing to be able to share with you the weather information we love to nerd out on.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Categories: Snow Disclaimer