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Lucy Strikes Again…or maybe not?

Current Temps and Radar

Quick Summary: Next 48 Hours

Temps: Cold!

Wind Chills dipping into the teens Wednesday morning:

Cold Today (42), Colder Tomorrow (23/34)

A brisk N wind will keep wind chills in the 20s today. Wednesday morning we will wake up with wind chills in the teens. Wednesday night’s wind chills will be in the low-to-mid 20s.

Rest of the Week

Notice the removal of “Wintry Mix” Thursday night. It was a meh-be forecast anyway. The NAM, Euro, and SREF weather models continue their warming trend — temps aloft will simply be too warm, and any precip that starts falling late Thursday night into Friday morning is now expected to be all rain.

UPDATE: it appears the chance of freezing rain and sleet has returned to the forecast. If you want more details, click on this. I’m on a date with my wife and will update later tonight.

The only outlier weather model is the GFS, which suggests freezing rain; however, the above-mentioned three models have been consistent, and given the NAM’s recent “success” in handling these events, NWS-Nashville is going with an all-rain forecast. That’s reasonable.

Good Grief

Rain Friday & Saturday will be a soaker: 1″ to 2″ is expected, which we can handle flood-wise, but if we get more than that it may be a little problem. High temps will be in the mid 50s.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon. NWS-Nashville wrote this morning “if this was March or April I would say we could be in for some severe weather.” Dewpoints will be in the mid 40s, which means no surface based instability. Any thunderstorms will start building further up in the sky, limiting their maturity and relieving any severe weather concerns.

The rain should quickly depart. Expect clearing and the return of colder temps Sunday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

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