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Storms Possible Tonight (Severe?), Then A Nice Weekend!

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Scattered (Possible Severe) Storms  – 10 PM Temp 76

We have a solid chance to see strong and even severe storms late this afternoon into tonight, but the timing and the severity is up in the air at this point (pun intended). The reason being…. a capping inversion and a disagreement in the models.

A capping inversion is when there is warmer air above cooler air. This cap will prevent air to rise… Unless we have a forcing mechanism like a cold front to force the air to rise or buoyant air overcomes it. Imagine a pot of boiling water on a stove and you hold a lid on it. One of two things will happen…. The lid will hold and nothing will happen or the pressure builds and the lid blows off. If the Metaphorical lid blows off, aka the capping inversion is overcome, we will have explosive development of storms.

This is why the SPC has put us under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM.

severe storm watch

The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. If the cap holds, we will not see severe weather!

The NAM is predicting that a majority of the rain/storms will fall between 8 and 11 PM.

This loop is between 7 PM (Thursday) and 1 AM (Friday)

According to the NAM model, the heaviest rain will fall in Nashville between 9 and 10 PM.

The HRRR model believes there will be two rounds of showers — and they will all be scattered.

At 4 PM we will see the first round…

21z

… These showers will be out of here around 7 PM.

(Editor’s Note: I think we can all safely say the HRRR has this wrong)

There will then be a lull until 11 PM when the second round of showers moves through.

4z

These showers will stick with us until about 3 AM.

Editor’s Note: My “gut” still thinks the big storm activity will pass to our NE, afraid to move W of I-24. However, the potential for west-of-I-24 storm development exists:

Stay #weatheralert tonight! Remember, no warning will ever be posted to this website. Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter and other reliable weather sources for information.

Friday – Slight Chance Thunderstorms, Partly Sunny – Wake Up 66, High 84

As the cold front continues to push through Middle Tennessee, we will hold on to a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon.

The SPC believes we will not see any severe weather on Friday in Nashville.

spc day 2

Saturday – Sunny & Calm – Wake Up 59, High 84

Saturday will be the perfect day for some outdoor activities for Memorial Day Weekend!

Extended Forecast:

extended

This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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