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Amazingly Nice, Windy Weekend; Strong Thunderstorms Likely Monday

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loops

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Today – Patchy AM Fog Then Mostly Sunny — Wake Up 51 / Afternoon High 79

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Could run into a few patches of fog until 9 am this morning. Especially areas that saw the majority of yesterday’s rain.

Plenty of sunshine to enjoy on this fine Saturday. Expect sustained south/southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph, gusting up to 25 mph this afternoon.

Sunday – Increasing Clouds & Windy – Wake Up 58 / Afternoon High 82

Your last chance to get outside and do what you want before thunderstorms and cooler temps on Monday.

Winds will be even stronger Sunday. Gusts of 30 mph are certainly possible in the afternoon. Could feel a touch on the humid side, especially when the winds take a rest from blowing.

We will remain rain free for the most part. There is a chance of seeing a stray shower/thunderstorm after midnight Sunday.

Monday – Thunderstorms Possible Strong to Severe – Wake Up 63 / Afternoon High 69

We will have a cold front approaching setting off some decent thunderstorms, then piping in some very chilly air.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) does not include us in the “Slight Risk” area Monday:

Screen Shot 2014-04-12 at 5.22.06 AM

However, this does not mean we can’t see an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. SPC has included us in the 5% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of us:

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With that said, there could be multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms with this system.

The first being early Monday morning possibly lasting into lunch. Then another batch, in and around the afternoon hours.

Notice the second round of heavy rain/thunderstorms stretching from Texas into Missouri that will be moving our way.

WeatherBELL Models | Premium Weather Maps 2014-04-12 05-36-29 2014-04-12 05-42-40

GFS model Monday 1 am – Tuesday 1 pm:

Does not want to clear us out of all the precip until early Tuesday.

*UPSET ALERT* 

Temperatures will be falling hard behind this cold front.

Here is the GFS model forecast temps Monday 7am – Wednesday 7am:

Can’t rule out a freeze Wednesday morning. Probably going to have patchy frost at the very least.

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-04-12 at 6.05.45 AM

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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