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Special Severe Weather Update
Ordinarily, I’d be telling bad jokes under the cover of April Fools Day.
I don’t think severe weather is funny. No jokes.
Thunderstorms are expected the first half of the day on Thursday. Showers will be “scattered to numerous” (NWS), but the highest instability values are expected to be off to our northwest, where strong/severe thunderstorms are more likely.
Nevertheless, storms with high winds and hail are possible in Middle Tennessee, but are more likely in NW Middle Tennessee (excluding us). We aren’t saying there will be no severe weather during this period, but this is not expected to be the “Main Event.”
The Main Event is Expected Late Thursday/Friday
I doubt you want to read about the negatively tilted 500mb jet, the sub-1000 surface low, and all the other technical weather ingredients which make strong to severe storms.
From the NWS (in blue):
Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly west of I-65 and especially near the Tennessee River.
Damaging winds and large hail look to be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Middle Tennessee in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Thursday night.
Notice that the worst of the weather is forecast to occur to our west. This is best viewed on the SPC Probabilistic Outlook, here:
The “hatched” (shaded) area means there is a 10%+ probability of “significant severe weather within 25 miles” of any point inside the shaded area. Those planning travel inside that shaded area Thursday and Friday should especially be alert.
Back to the NWS:
Although activity will weaken during the morning hours on Friday, some restrengthening of thunderstorms is possible due to daytime heating Friday afternoon. [The threat will continue] until [the] cold front exits the area.
Some models anticipate impressive thunderstorm reformation and redevelopment Friday.
Strong gusty winds behind [after] the cold front will also likely warrant a Wind Advisory on Friday.
The only rain chance this weekend is Sunday night, and that’s a very low chance. Expect sunny skies, lows in the mid/low 40s, and highs in the low/mid 60s this weekend.
More info coming this afternoon. Stay tuned.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs