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Severe Weather Sleepover Thursday Night?

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tuesday Night – Partly Cloudy, Pleasant – Upper 60s!

The record high for today was 86° (1963). We came close: 82°!

Wednesday – Partly Sunny; Increasing Clouds/Winds; Chance of Showers Late – Wake Up 56 / Afternoon High 79

Clouds and winds will increase through the day. Expect sustained south/southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph, gusting up to 20 mph.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) does not include us in an severe weather outlook Wednesday.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 1, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook 2014-04-01 14-53-51 2014-04-01 14-56-28

We may see no-worry showers/storms very late Wednesday night, into Thursday morning.

Thursday – Off & On Thunderstorms; Severe Storms Possible Very Late – Wake Up 62 / Afternoon High 77

I think we will remain mostly rain free for much of Thursday; however, “intermittent impulse activity” will be present during the day, so we can’t rule out rain/thunderstorms all day. In fact, you should expect rain/storms at some point during the day Thursday.

The concern is late Thursday night through dawn Friday. During this period, the SPC has us under a Slight Risk of severe weather:

Storm Prediction Center Apr 1, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook 2014-04-01 14-58-37 2014-04-01 15-06-07

Why? Well, storm-friendly atmospheric instability will increase Thursday night, into the wee hours of the early morning on Friday.

Meanwhile, a cold front will move west-to-east into Middle Tennessee, with an ETA around sunrise Friday.

This means the window of opportunity for severe weather exists while we’re sleeping Thursday night and early Friday morning. This is good, and bad, news.

The bad news is that most of us will be sleeping.

The good news is that the nocturnal arrival of the severe weather system is diminishing projected severe weather indices (Showalters, CAPE, low level jet, and omega fields) — it could be worse, and it probably will be worse for those to our west, where the system will be arriving during daylight hours.

Nevertheless, severe weather ingredients are in place, and we all need to carefully watch this system as we hone the ETAs and expected impacts.

As for rain, there is some hope [game that requires a ball roll on the ground] will happen Saturday. If the cold front arrives around sunrise Friday, we’ll have time to dry out. We think we’ll get under 1″ of rain Thursday & early Friday:

Stay tuned, y’all. You’ll be hearing a LOT more about this tomorrow and Thursday.

The weekend looks nice. Mostly sunny, highs in the low 60s.

Official Extended NWS Forecast

Screen Shot 2014-04-01 at 1.20.11 PM

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

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