Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)
Current Radar Loop
Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)
Tonight – Warm, Slight Chance of Rain – 10PM Low 60s!!!
A light shower may arrive late tonight. Short term models think so.
I had to double check to see if the approaching precipitation seen in the models will actually make it here. Below is a vorticity chart showing the presence of “spin” in the atmosphere needed to produce precipitation. The more vivid the colors the more “spin” we have in the atmosphere.
This shows a small amount of vorticity advection into Middle Tennessee, which causes “lift” in the atmosphere. It’s not all that impressive, like it is in the Mid-West, but agrees with models to roll through late tonight…So our rain chances are still set at “meh”.
For the record, “meh” means “not much.”
Any rain should be gone in the morning.
Tuesday – Partly Sunny – Wake Up 53, Afternoon High 76
WELCOME BACK SPRING!!
Later This Week
We are currently not technically outlooked for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center. This may change. Check out the forecast location of the low pressure center “L” Friday morning:
Remember, we would prefer that “L” to be further north, which would decrease our strong/severe weather concerns.
Right now, the best thinking on the timing for any strong/severe weather is Thursday night/overnight Friday/Friday morning.
Most of the severe weather should stay west of the Mississippi River.
Poor Arkansas! ;(
WxNerds will enjoy this run of the GFS model, showing dew points in the upper 60s (!!) early Friday afternoon, as the cold front sweeps west to east:
The storm system should clear out by Friday night, but not before we see 1″ to 2″ of rain, falling mostly Thursday night and Friday:
The weekend looks nice, with high temps in the 60s. There is a mention of isolated showers Sunday, with another round of storms possible Monday. If you want your May flowers, then, well, it needs to rain in April.
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Categories: Forecast Blogs