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Tonight’s Rain ETA, Update on Freezing Rain Sunday Night / Monday AM

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temps Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight  Waiting for the Rain  57 at 10 PM 

The HRRR thinks the rain will arrive around 2 AM:

The RAP agrees with the 2 AM ETA:

Sunday – All-Day Rain; Freezing Rain Possible Late – AM Low 48, PM High 49

Expect to wake up to rain. It’ll be heaviest, and most steady, during the morning. It’ll continue into the afternoon and through the evening.

Just for grins, and in case you don’t believe me, here’s the 4km NAM Noon Sunday:

We think we’ll see about 1″ of rain:

Things get interesting Sunday night into Monday morning.

Snow?

The WPC says the chance of snow is confined to areas N of I-40, where the probability of snow is between 1% and 5%.

Actually, the only “concern” Sunday night is freezing rain/ice.

The Weather Prediction Center puts our chance of seeing ANY freezing rain tomorrow night/Monday morning at 60%:

However, the probability of getting more than 0.10″ of ice north of I-40 is between 1% and 5%. Those in extreme northern Davidson County have a 5% to 10% probability of freezing rain greater than 0.10″. Those south of I-40 aren’t expected to get any ice accumulating over 0.10″:

Some of this could be sleet, but, again, no snow is expected.

It usually takes 0.25″ of ice to cause problems with power (the odds of that are 0% according to the WPC); however, any ice can — and will — cause travel problems.

This afternoon, our NWS updated the Special Weather Statement:

More on this in the morning.

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