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It’s Severe Weather Awareness Week across the State of Tennessee. The NWS picked the right week — there’s a chance of severe weather Thursday.

Today’s topic is Flooding and Flash Flooding:

Tonight – Rain Ending

As the rain moves out, we will cool off just a touch as this cold front eases through. This will make for a mostly clear evening. Watch the clearing happen on water vapor imagery:

Don’t worry, it’ll be nice tomorrow.

Countdown to Spring:

Tuesday – Sunny – Morning Low 32 / Afternoon High 66

Jacket in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon.

Wednesday – Mostly Sunny & Warm! – Morning Low 45 / Afternoon High 62

There is a small chance of rain, but it’s a really small chance.

If it got any nicer, we might have to deal with severe weather… Oh, wait…

Official extended NWS Forecast:

Severe Weather Possible Thursday PM

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has included us in its “Day 4″ outlook. They forecast a 30%+ chance for severe weather occurring within 25 miles of us:

Storms will sweep across Tennessee in a line. Timing with this system has sped up just a bit, so we are expecting this event to arrive Thursday night instead of early Friday morning.

Our main concern at this time is damaging straight line winds. A tornado, embedded inside the squall line, is possible, but the chance of that is low.

GFS model Thursday Noon – Friday 6 am:

We will have more details tomorrow.

Spring is not here to stay. There is a 70% chance of below-average temps next week (Feb 23 – 27):

Cold air will continue into March. Here’s the outlook for Feb. 25 – Mar. 3 (according to the Climate Prediction Center):

Additional information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.