Severe Weather Possible Thursday

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Temps Next 24 Hours (auto-updating)

Current Radar Loop

It’s Severe Weather Awareness Week across the State of Tennessee. The NWS picked the right week — there’s a chance of severe weather Thursday.

Today’s topic is Flooding and Flash Flooding:

Tonight – Rain Ending

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-02-17 14-49-58 2014-02-17 14-52-01

As the rain moves out, we will cool off just a touch as this cold front eases through. This will make for a mostly clear evening. Watch the clearing happen on water vapor imagery:

Don’t worry, it’ll be nice tomorrow.

Countdown to Spring:

Tuesday – Sunny – Morning Low 32 / Afternoon High 66

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-02-17 15-14-44 2014-02-17 15-16-15

Jacket in the morning, t-shirt in the afternoon.

Wednesday – Mostly Sunny & Warm!  Morning Low 45 / Afternoon High 62

National Weather Service Text Product Display 2014-02-17 15-16-31 2014-02-17 15-18-37

There is a small chance of rain, but it’s a really small chance.

If it got any nicer, we might have to deal with severe weather… Oh, wait…

Official extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-02-17 at 3.37.48 PM

Severe Weather Possible Thursday PM

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has included us in its “Day 4″ outlook. They forecast a 30%+ chance for severe weather occurring within 25 miles of us:

Storm Prediction Center Feb 17, 2014 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook 2014-02-17 15-46-38 2014-02-17 15-50-24

Storms will sweep across Tennessee in a line. Timing with this system has sped up just a bit, so we are expecting this event to arrive Thursday night instead of early Friday morning.

Our main concern at this time is damaging straight line winds. A tornado, embedded inside the squall line, is possible, but the chance of that is low.

GFS model Thursday Noon – Friday 6 am:

We will have more details tomorrow.

Spring is not here to stay. There is a 70% chance of below-average temps next week (Feb 23 – 27):

Cold air will continue into March. Here’s the outlook for Feb. 25 – Mar. 3 (according to the Climate Prediction Center):

Additional information can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.