Forecast Blogs

On the Edge of a “Major Severe Weather Outbreak”

This morning’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) headline reads “A Major Severe Weather Outbreak is Forecast Today and/or Tonight.”

SPC”s “High Risk” category of severe weather category is rarely used. It’s in effect over Eastern Illinois, all of Indiana, southwest Michigan, and western Ohio. Chicago, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati are a few of the major cities included. If you have friends and family in the “High Risk” area, urge them to monitor the weather. This is not an “ordinary severe weather day” for them. It does not get worse than a “High Risk.”

Even the “Moderate Risk” is a big deal in weather-speak, and we’re not that far away from it.

We’re included in the “Slight Risk.” Please know tornadoes and other damaging severe weather can, and do, happen in a “Slight Risk” area. More on this below.

We will see two rounds of storms. Round One will be morning and early afternoon rain/storms. This should be the weaker of the two events. Round Two comes tonight in the form of a squall line. This may be the more dangerous of the two.

It’ll be worth your time to have an eye on both rounds. Monitor all reliable weather sources today.

Round One: Morning & Early Afternoon Rain/Storms

At 7:38 a.m., there were no weather watches, and certainly no warnings. This may change later this morning into early afternoon. We can already see a few embedded thunderstorms in west Tennessee.

The HRRR says these showers & storms will last until 2 p.m.

Then, we will see a break in the steady rain/storms, and await the approach of a squall line.

The severe weather threat will likely come during the late afternoon and evening, when damaging straight line winds will be the main threat, with isolated tornadoes possible.

Damaging Wind / Tornado / Hail Probabilities:

From our NWS:

Below is the HRRR’s depiction of the squall line tonight. I have to say, I like how weak it looks, but don’t let that fool you. Other models have it looking more impressive than this:

99% of our content appears on Twitter (@NashSevereWx), and not this site. Please check all reliable weather sources throughout the day. Questions? Ask us on Twitter.

Finally, a few reminders:

A Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado “Watch” means conditions are favorable for severe weather / tornado. You should very closely monitor weather conditions during a watch, and already have a plan in place if you are in a warning.

A Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado “Warning” means a severe thunderstorm or tornado is imminent or occurring. It requires immediate action. If inside the Tornado Warning polygon/box, take cover in a sturdy building, lowest level, and put as many walls between you and the storm as possible.

New to tornado weather? Read this.

Charge your cell phones!

Categories: Forecast Blogs