Two rounds of potentially severe weather will take a swing at us tomorrow.
Round 1: The Morning
There was debate this morning as to whether we’d see rain/storms tomorrow morning or afternoon.
Right now, we think there will be morning storms.
The RAP model (one of two short-range models) is finally starting to come in range. It has the rain/storms moving toward us from west Tennessee at 6 a.m.:
The WRF agrees. Sunday at 9 a.m. below. (The NAM, not pictured, agrees).
A few storms may be strong, but we don’t expect widespread severe weather from these morning storms.
In fact, morning storms will help stabilize our atmosphere, which will help limit the severity of storms later in the day.
We think there may be a break in the rain/storms during the afternoon. During this time, winds are expected to increase to 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 a.m. to 10 p.m. Sunday.
Round 2: Early Evening Squall Line
From our NWS:
The amount of rain and cloud cover during the day could limit the development of severe storms for our region (thus, the reason we are placed in a Slight Risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center).
We’ll have to monitor that closely Sunday. At this time, though, we could see a decent enough break for storms to develop along the cold front, affecting Middle TN after 4pm Sunday around the TN river, and through roughly 10pm-midnight towards the Plateau.
We expect a squall line with an ETA around 7-8 p.m. The squall line, if severe, is most likely to produce damaging straight-line winds, though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
The Hi-Res NAM does a good job illustrating the squall line (looping Sunday 2 pm, 3 pm, 4 pm, 5 pm, then skipping to 8 pm then 11 pm):
The Storm Prediction Center will update this overnight. We’ll put something up in the morning on this site, but keep in mind most (if not all) of our information would be placed exclusively on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs