A few small, isolated showers are dotting the Friday afternoon radar, mostly N and NE of us. A few more will pass through TN (see below, HRRR at 4 p.m.), then dissipate when the sun goes down. Look for temps around 81 at 7 p.m., 74 around 10 p.m., with a light S wind.
We’ll wake up Saturday to 67, hit 80 by noon, then top out in the upper 80s in the afternoon. The heat index (yes, you read that right) may hit 90 around 4 p.m.
As the temps increase, so will the clouds. Our NWS includes a chance of rain Saturday morning, but the odds of rain during the day remain low.
Rain is increasingly likely Saturday night. By sunrise Sunday, our NWS estimates 0.50″ will have fallen.
Our NWS says rain is “definite” Sunday between 7 a.m. and 4 p.m. Expect an additional 1″ of rain during that time, with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. That’s a dramatic cool-down compared to the hot Saturday afternoon.
You can see it all taking shape on the water vapor imagery from Friday afternoon:
A cold front now in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri will continue to march east. It’ll approach late Saturday night and arrive Sunday. Meanwhile, the struggling north-moving Tropical Storm Karen (now in the Gulf) will supply the moisture which 10 mph south winds will deliver into Middle TN. The cold front will have no trouble lifting all that tropical moisture, guaranteeing a wet Sunday.
If there is any good news, it’s that we don’t expect any severe weather Sunday; however, an increase in instability Sunday afternoon may set off a few thunderstorms. For that reason, the Storm Prediction Center includes us inside its 5% chance (see below) of a strong/severe thunderstorm:
Early Sunday afternoon rainfall totals per the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA):
I remain optimistic rain will hold off for the Vandy game and other Saturday night activities. We’ll have a better handle on the timing tomorrow morning, but for now you should have a rain plan if you have something going on Saturday night.
I don’t see any reasonable scenario where the Titans game is dry. Expect a bog. Bring a poncho, and be prepared for temps in the upper 60s / low 70s.
We should clear out Sunday night. Temps will plummet into the low 50s Monday morning. Monday’s high temp is 70. The rest of next week looks dry, with high temps gradually climbing to 80 by Thursday.
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