Small, isolated showers are on our radar, all sunlight/heat driven. Any showers will dissipate after sundown. Temps will drop from the low 80s around sundown to the mid 70s tonight.
Saturday – Scattered Showers
A south wind will transport substantial moisture into Middle Tennessee. Sufficient instability should exist to set off a few afternoon, scattered, hit-or-miss showers (and maybe a t’storm). Our NWS thinks this will begin when the temp reaches around 83, which is forecast to happen by lunch. Locally heavy downpours are the main concern. Again, this is not expected to be a widespread event. Most of us should stay dry.
We’re forecast to hit 85 by 1 p.m. Our high temp is 87.
The Main Rain Event: Saturday Night Through Sunday
Weather models disagree on the exact arrival of the approaching rain-causing cold front; however, the models generally agree the cold front will be somewhere between the Tennessee River at I-65 at 7 a.m. Sunday morning. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karen is forecast to landfall between New Orleans and Mobile, then trudge NE, potentially causing our cold front to slow down in Middle TN as it moves toward Knoxville.
The result: 1″ to 1.50″ of rain Sunday. Some areas may see a bit more than that. Here’s the breakdown:
Saturday 7 p.m. through Sunday 7 a.m.: 0.09″. Most weather models keep us dry Saturday night, but a few models (WRF, below, Sat 7 p.m.) predict a few showers/t’storms.
Sunday 7 a.m. through Sunday 7 p.m.: 1.00″.
The bulk of the rain will fall Sunday morning and early afternoon. WPC’s prediction of rainfall totals from 7 a.m to 1 p.m. Sunday:
There is also a slight chance of a thunderstorm. The Storm Prediction Center says there is a 5% chance of a strong/severe thunderstorm happening within 25 miles of us, but we aren’t particularly concerned about that right now.
Titans fans should bring a poncho. Expect pre-game rain lasting through kickoff. Prepare for temps in the upper 60s / low 70s. Rain may end before the game is over.
Sunday Night & Next Week
We should clear out Sunday late afternoon or evening. Colder, drier air will filter in behind the cold front, cutting Monday’s wake-up temp to 53 (!), with an afternoon high of 71.
The rest of the week looks dry, with high temps gradually climbing to 80 by Thursday.
The Intern will update this forecast Saturday morning.
Questions? Hit us up on Twitter @NashSevereWx.
Categories: Forecast Blogs