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When Will The Rain Start This Weekend?

It’s Day 3 and counting of the federal government shutdown. Our local National Weather Service office in Nashville is still up, running, and not going anywhere.

There was some interruption in the flying of the Hurricane Hunters’ aircraft into Tropical Storm Karen. They are on furlough … but still doing their job.

Tonight – Mostly Clear – High 85

We do not expect rain tonight.

Friday – Isolated Showers Unlikely. Warm! – High 87

7a 65 . 10a 76 . 1p 84 . 4p 86 . 7p 81 . 10p 72

We may see a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms, but I would not bet on it. We expect a good night for football.

Saturday – Slight Chance of Thunderstorms – High 86

7a 65 . 10a 75 . 1p 83 . 4p 85 . 7p 80 . 10p 71

We aren’t ruling out a stray Saturday afternoon thunderstorm. The earlier you’ve got something happening outside Saturday, the better; however, we think the main rain event will hold off during the day Saturday, then begin after midnight / wee Sunday morning hours.

GFS model projects the rain to be in W TN Saturday at 7 PM:

gfs_precip_mslp_east_21

That big “L” in the northern Gulf is Tropical Storm Karen.

This illustrates how we feel about Karen right now:

(Editor’s Note: I doubt The Intern gets this (he’s a whippersnapper). If you get it, you are a fine American and we should be friends].

Sunday – Rain/Storms

Forecasts like this make it hard to be a meteorologist. But that’s why I love it! (Editor’s Note: I don’t pretend to understand why The Intern feels this way, but whatever).

Tropical Storm Karen is in the Gulf of Mexico, with sustained winds of 65 mph. She’s having a hard time maturing because she’s being fed by dry air and experiencing some wind shear.

Behold below a slew of models projecting the center of Karen’s path (as we noted yesterday, she’s a big girl, so don’t fixate too much on the center):

Just for fun, here’s Karen official track from the National Hurricane Center:

210415W5_NL_sm

Karen will influence our rainfall totals Sunday. If she goes east (as projected), we’ll get less rain. If she comes closer to us, we’ll get more. There is low confidence in the tracks mentioned. Furthermore, some weather models mature her into a hurricane (Feminists). Other weather models continue to weaken her and keep her a weak tropical storm (Mad Men). Either the Feminists or Mad Men will be proved right.

Karen isn’t the only factor. A cold front is scheduled to approach from our NW and arrive around 7 AM Sunday morning. If Karen (or whatever is left of her) arrives in Middle TN around then, you can expect a bog/washout/frog strangler all day Sunday. If Karen slows and keeps going east, it’ll rain, but not that much.

The GFS model is still trying to keep Karen away from the front. This means less rain.

The European model (we’re not allowed to show it to you) predicts the cold front and tropical system arrive together, and rain us out all day Sunday.

We recommend you plan for more than a little rain Sunday. My gut says it won’t be frog strangler, but it’ll rain. The Weather Prediction Center predicts under 1″:

We’ll have a better handle on the timing tomorrow, and certainly Saturday, as we watch Karen navigate the Gulf.

Questions? Hit us up on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Categories: Uncategorized