Severe Weather Possible Tuesday; More Rain Wednesday?

Today – Thunderstorms Possible Very Late – High 75 

The airport picked up almost a half inch of rain today. Rain and cloud cover conspired to keep us cool, but it was not cool enough to break the record for lowest high temperature: 68 set back in 1970.

So, to review, 1970 was cooler:

We are clear of the rain for now, but we could see more showers/storms early Tuesday morning. This is seen by the Hi-Res NAM model Monday 8 PM – Tuesday 5 AM:

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Tuesday –  Thunderstorms Likely, Some May Be Severe – High 92

7 am 72 . 10 am 82 . 1 pm 90 . 4 pm 91 . 7 pm 87 . 10 pm 79

There is uncertainty with this forecast in terms of when and how many rounds of storms we could see. Right now it’s safe to expect at least one thunderstorm complex, a/k/a mesoscale convective system (MCS), in the morning (as shown above). There may be another in the afternoon/evening, as shown by the Hi-Res NAM model Tuesday 6 AM – 3 PM:

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The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has upgraded us to a “Slight” (think “enhanced) risk of severe weather. They’ve outlooked us inside a 15% chance of severe weather happening within 25 miles of you. Damaging straight line winds will be the greatest threat.

More details on this tomorrow morning.

Wednesday – Cooler; Thunderstorms Possible – High 86

7 am 72 . 10 am 79 . 1 pm 83 . 4 pm 86 . 7 pm 80 . 10 pm 76

More thunderstorms remain possible at any time of day. The NAM at 10 a.m. Wednesday depicts lingering showers/storms:

Stay close to reliable weather sources the next few days.