Sunday Rain/Storm Concern for #CMAFest; 90s Return This Week

Posted on by David

Tonight – 72 at 10 p.m.

No chance of rain.

Sunday – High 84

Our National Weather Service wrote the following (in blue) to emergency management personnel and other CMA Music Festival organizers:

Morning & Afternoon

Rain chances continue to increase for Sunday.  It looks like areas of rain showers, along with a thunderstorm or two, will overspread the area during the morning hours and continue off an on through the afternoon.  We are not expecting any severe storms, but there likely will be some localized downpours and cloud to ground lightning.  
This is supported by the GFS Model (for 7 a.m. Sunday morning):
Evening & Overnight
There is still a low potential for a line of storms to be getting close to Nashville very late Sunday Evening.  Right now it looks like the best chance for these storms to arrive will be well after Midnight, but we’ll continue to monitor closely. 
(BTW, I don’t know what the deal is with the spacing on these paragraphs. I blame WordPress). The GFS model predicts the storm line to arrive Sunday around midnight:

The WRF model agrees with an on/after midnight Sunday ETA:

The Storm Prediction Center updated their Day 2 Slight Risk area to include parts of Middle Tennessee, but not metro Nashville, due to this potential.  The updated SPC graphic is attached.

We will update this in the morning when the SPC updates its outlook and we get in range of the short term models (such as the beloved HRRR).

Monday – High 85

Rain is likely Monday morning, and may continue off & on the rest of the day.

Tuesday – High 91

Rain departs, but the heat will build into the 90s.  Wednesday’s high is 93. Thursday we’ll hit 90, and again confront the chance of storms (some may be strong).

In-storm updates can be found on Twitter @NashSevereWx.