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Damaging Winds, Isolated Tornado Risk, Heavy Rain: ETA 10am-3pm Thursday

Severe weather looks likely tomorrow.

WHEN?

The weather models still disagree. Our NWS is going with “anywhere between 10am and 3pm.” Best bet for us is “around midday.” However, the timing is “very uncertain.”

WAIT. DO YOU MEAN THOSE STORMS ALMOST IN MEMPHIS AT 9PM MAY TAKE MORE THAN 12 HOURS TO GET HERE?

Well, yeah. Have a look at the radar in Memphis as of 9PM tonight (Wednesday):

Howard

WHAT TO EXPECT

The Storm Prediction Center thinks there is a 30% of a severe weather event (winds > 58mph, and/or 1″ hail, and/or a tornado) happening within 25 miles of you.

This afternoon our NWS said:

  • damaging winds main threat.
  • isolated tornadoes possible.
  • we do not expect a full blown severe weather outbreak or widespread damage.
  • the storms may be more intense east of I-65, which would be after they pass by us.

Later this afternoon, our NWS added:

EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE DOWN THROUGH ARKANSAS SHORTLY AND
BEGIN TO WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BE ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM CDT. LINE WILL WORK EAST IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND BE ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY 7 AM CDT WHILE
WEAKENING. AM EXPECTING THE LINE TO REGENERATE OVER CENTRAL AREAS
OF THE MID STATE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AND
PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65
WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF SPIN
UPS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

RAIN

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center forecasts 1.50″ of rain or more from 7pm tonight through 7pm Friday (see the below map). All of this rain will fall Thursday. Our NWS calls for 1.57″ in Davidson County and 1.60″ in Williamson County.

All forecasts like these deal in uncertainties. Monitor reliable weather sources tonight and tomorrow in case things change.

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