ETA
This afternoon our NWS updated its ETA. Storms are forecast to arrive between 8am and noon Thursday.
Hail?
Probably not much, if any. Our NWS:
WHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSES WESTERN TN AND APPROACHES MIDDLE TN ...SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS...CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY MORE THAN ANYTHING...PLUMMETS WITHOUT DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SEEMS TO BE A SHARED OPINION ACROSS THE MODELS. THIS WOULD CALM THE FEARS OF MANY IN THE WAY OF HAIL.
Damaging Winds & Tornadoes?
There’s a decent chance of both. Our NWS gets technical:
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING SUB 1000 FT LCLS AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES ABOVE 300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF THE LINE. HODOGRAPHS CANT LOOK MUCH MORE CLASSIC FOR CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALOFT... A BROAD AND STRONG AREA OF 250 MB DIVERGENCE DOES APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH A THIN AREA OF STRONG 850 MB FLOW, THUS DYNAMICAL LIFT IS STILL A PLAYER AS WELL.
That’s weather-speak for “the conditions are forecast to favor damaging straight-line winds, and possibly a tornado.” Thankfully, the NWS included a summary:
TO SUMMARIZE...THE THREATS OF NOTE ARE GOING TO BE LARGELY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND THE THREAT OF BRIEF TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE. THE BULK OF THIS THREAT WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT ITSELF.
Heavy Rain?
Yes. Here is the “How Much We Think It’ll Rain” map from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. This covers 7pm Wednesday through 7pm Thursday:
Our local NWS office estimates 1.37″ in Davidson County and 1.51″ in Williamson County.
You’ll find more updates on Twitter (@NashSevereWx). I’ll update this site as more information becomes available.
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