Today is the last day to get any outside yardwork done, at least in somewhat comfortable weather, for the foreseeable future.
Dewpoints in the 50s today, turn up into the mid 60s tomorrow, upper 60s by the weekend. Grosssssss.
Today was/will be one of the last days we experience nice temperatures for the foreseeable future.
NWS Nashville made this handy dandy graph to show how to combo of temperatures + humidity will worsen throughout the week. Emphasis on worsen.
I am getting the same feeling looking at the temperatures for later this week as I do when I am forced to climb the old, scary, wooden ladder I have – “oh great here we go again.” I don’t like heights – or supahot temps.
So far today rain has been kind to us – mostly missing us. Models continue to think this trend will continue throughout the day, with only the occasional shower and low thunderstorm chances.
The HRRR model, shown above, thinks we’ll get away with a dry afternoon and only a few light showers along a cold front that will push thru around sunset, bringing relief from the humidity for the next couple of days. Still not a bad idea to bring rain gear to the CMA Fest, just not sure how much you’ll need it.
We are left with a nearly rain-free week ahead.
"Through this week, a stray pop-up shower or storm cannot be ruled
out, particularly late week when humidity creeps up. But for the
most part, models show the dry air and strong ridge suppressing
any significant rain chances." - NWS Nashville AFD
A storm complex will make a run at us overnight tonight, kicking off an off/on rainy Sunday.
HRRR thinks the first round of rain gets here around 3:00 am. Could have some thunder/lightning with it. Doggies prepare. The window closes on rain chances about 7:00 pm. Time stamps top left.
Our local NWS office issues a technical forecast discussion at least twice a day. They’re filled with information, and often contain terms that are understood by the weather community, but perhaps, not many others. However, today’s discussion is perfect for just about everyone. Didn’t see much of a need to re-invent the wheel…except for maybe substituting a word or two. Read on.
From NWS Nashville re: Saturday’s Rain Chances:
We continue to look for development of a [storm complex] up to our northwest
tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by
Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it
encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee.
Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the
remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday.
We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main
result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers
that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events.
Most of the rain we saw this morning has already moved out, with only a few showers left over. Models think all the morning activity will be gone by around lunchtime, and we get away with a dry afternoon.
Showers, and some storms are already moving thru the area and will continue to do so throughout the day, as illustrated below by the imperfect HRRR model.
There is a decent amount of CAPE (storm fuel) out there, but very little to no wind energy. These storms may become strong briefly, with some gusty winds and small hail, but will not be able to hold on for very long. Flash flooding potential today is low – but not zero. Slow moving storms will have the potential to drop a lot of rain in not a lot of time.
It’s that time of the year to start playing the Wattery. All will enter, few will win.
HRRR model suggests storms with lightning start popping up around 4 or 5 pm today, with activity slowing down after sunset. Not everyone will see rain, but those that do may have to temporarily relocate indoors and wait for the lightning to pass.
Low rain chances today + tomorrow.
HRRR model (above) shows some midday pop-up showers/storms possible. No severe weather expected today, or in the next 7 days.
Monday will be similar to today, more chances at pop-ups during the afternoon and evening hours.
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