Snow Tonight with “Some Slippery Spots”

Radar at 4:07 pm shows some light to moderate precipitation driving down I-24 from W Kentucky and S Illinois:

Raydar

Wx models keep that precip coming. Almost all precip today has fallen as snow flurries, which should continue tonight. The HRRR thinks we’ll be up to an inch of accumulated snowfall as of 4am Tuesday morning. Keep in mind, this is just one weather model, not a forecast, and could be wrong:

Total Accumulated Snowfall based on the HRRR wx model. It's just one model & may be wrong.
Total Accumulated Snowfall based on the HRRR wx model. It’s just one model & may be wrong.

But, will it stick?  The NWS think it might, mostly in Davidson County:

MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BELIEVE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG UNTREATED
ROADWAYS, BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, AS THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES. SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG ROADS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE MID-STATE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE I-24 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA). EXPECT UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN AREAS JUST WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, RANGING TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH IN THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA.

Because accumulations are forecast to be under an inch, no Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for us.

Monday’s Meager Snow Chances

Here’s what happened overnight:

Hopscotch

Today we may see snow in the air from time to time, some of it falling as rain, some of it as snow. Temps will be above freezing, so we don’t expect it to stick to much – mainly just decks, grills and elevated surfaces – if anything at all.

More of the same tonight.  NWS says:

NASHVILLE WILL BE JUST BELOW FREEZING AND WILL LIKELY WARM UP ENOUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING THAT ANY PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN SNOW MIX BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY AND COOL.

So, we might wake up to a Tuesday morning dusting. Travel problems are not expected. The heavier/measurable snow is much more likely on the plateau.

Look for updates on the Twitter timeline (bottom of the page on the mobile version, to the left on the web version).

 

 

 

Marchuary Continues…Snow!

No need to panic or party, but seriously, it’s late March and we think it’ll snow tonight and tomorrow night. Counting both nights, look for “around an inch.”

The NWS Graphicast:

NWS Snowfall

Here’s the text for tonight into Monday: “less than one half inch.”

AS FOR THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE 
WILL EFFECT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AREAS ALONG THE 
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COULD SEE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS NON PLATEAU AREAS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
TN...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN...NO MORE THAN A
TRACE IS EXPECTED.

Total Accumulated Snowfall at 8am: under 1″ according to the HRRR

Boogers

The RAP agrees, calling for under an inch by noon

Boogers1

For Monday night into Tuesday: “up to 1 inch.”

A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS 
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL BEING POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATEAU. UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NON PLATEAU AREAS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE TN. ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AGAIN...NO MORE THAN A TRACE IS EXPECTED.

What happened to Spring?

 

After the Rain…(a cold wind, snow in the air)

This post is brought to you by a song I really still like no longer like anymore, from Nelson.

Nelson-After-The-Rain---365976

Even though we may still see a few more drive-thru showers this afternoon, the majority of the rain and all of the storms are gone. Strong winds are piling into Middle TN. Wind gusts were found to our west, and moving our way, in the 20 and 30mph range around 3:15pm today:

Winds gusting

Any stray showers tonight might freeze into snowflakes and settle on your grills, decks, shaded roofs, etc.  Below is the HRRR model depiction for snow showers which may pass through tonight. The image shows how much snow might fall – but is very unlikely to stick – as of 2am Monday morning. Keep in mind this is just one model. It may be wrong. Also, the ground/roads are pretty warm. We don’t expect travel issues.

Snow through Sun 2 am

More on the s–w chances tonight.

Nelson might as well have been singing about the snow: “The only thing he ever gave you was a broken heart.

NWS Special Wx Statement - Afternoon Storms

From our NWS. Radar Image from 2pm.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH 345 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AT ABOUT 200 PM CDT...
THE BAND EXTENDED FROM NEAR PORTLAND...TO NEAR FRANKLIN...SMYRNA
AND LEWISBURG. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS RECEIVED THIS 
AFTERNOON OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...ASSOCIATED WITH THESE 
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

March Update

As Storms Arrive…

Check out the Twitter timeline below (mobile version) and to the left (web version). You’ll find a stream of info there 🙂

NWS Significant Weather Advisory for Small Hail & 40 mph Winds

20130324-122006.jpg…A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH 215 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON…

AT 1208 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS…SOME STRONG…EXTENDING FROM
JUST WEST OF CLARKSVILLE…TO NEAR LOBELVILLE AND WAYNESBORO…MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST AT AROUND 50 MPH.

HAIL TO DIME SIZE IS EXPECTED TO BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGER STORMS…ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

Wind Advisory with Afternoon Rain + Monday Snow?

Today expect rain this afternoon with a small thunderstorm chance, falling temps tonight, maybe a few snowflakes overnight with little or no accumulation, and a lot of wind. This is “Marchuary” (a term used by Tom Johnstone, who is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the NWS in Nashville) at it’s finest.

The NWS explains the Wind Advisory below. NWS’s system is set up in all caps. They’re not trying to yell at you. Science!

AS BOTH A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY.

…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY…

WINDS…SUSTAINED 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS…TREE LIMBS MAY BE BLOWN DOWN AND DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT. LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE TOSSED AROUND.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH AND/OR GUSTS OF 35 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT … ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

Here’s NOAA’s take on the percentage chance of Snow greater than 1″ from 7am Monday thorugh 7am Tuesday.  We are somewhere in the 5% to 10% chance.

snow prob

As in all things weather, embrace the uncertainty.

Next Three Days: Wet, then Cold & Dreary

The map below shows rainfall totals under a half inch from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning. Most of this rain will fall this afternoon into Sunday morning and afternoon.  We may see a stray thunderstorm or two, but nothing to worry about.

Sunday night the temperature will start to drop into the 30s, where they will stay all day Monday. What’s worse, a strong, cold wind will drive wind chills into the upper 20s. Monday and Tuesday we may squeeze out snowflakes, but we don’t think anything will stick.

 

d13_fill

Rainfall totals from 7pm Saturday to 7pm Tuesday.

Models Keeping Us Dry Most of Saturday

There’s still a small chance these models are wrong, but on this they agree: no rain until around dusk tonight, probably later.