There is a low-end, conditional threat of damaging straight-line winds later this evening and into the overnight hours.

The Storm Prediction Cetner has us outlooked with a 5% chance of damaging straight-line winds within 25 miles. We are not included in any probabilities for hail or tornadoes.

New data will come in throughout the day, but as of right now (right before noon), we’ll be watching the potential for a line of storms moving from the NW to the SE sometime later this evening/overnight. It’s hard to get any more specific than that right now due to model disagreements.

Models are notorious for handling these events poorly, whether it’s the location or strength/longevity of the line, the summertime dynamics give them a hard time resolving things.

Generally speaking, all models agree that some sort of complex of storms will form off to our NW and move towards our general area. The big question is whether or not that line of storms will weaken prior to arrival.

Here is a gif of what six different models think the radar could look like at 11p tonight. Some similarities, some differences.

We’ll keep y’all updated with the latest info. Be ready to be flexible with any outdoor plans you may have this evening and tonight. Those at Bonnaroo, all of this info applies to y’all. Be sure to tie down your tents and secure your belongings. *If* the storms do make it, heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning will all be possible. It is also possible we stay dry. It’s the season of embracing uncertainty.

“There may be a lull in activity Sunday morning before daytime heating and the next shortwave can kick off additional showers and storms mid day through the afternoon Sunday.” says NWS Nashville

Coverage tomorrow during the day should be fairly isolated, with some of us staying totally dry. If you do see a storm, the usual heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds would all be possible.

Cooler and drier weather will arrive on Monday and stick around for a few days. More unsettled weather arrives Thursday.